AI correctly predicted the Partick win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Partick Partick ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morton | 29.7% | 17.3% | +12.4 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.4% | 22.7% | +6.7 pp | Model Higher |
| Partick | 40.9% | 60.0% | -19.1 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Partick's win probability at 60.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 19.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Partick win 0–1).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Partick than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Partick higher (60.0% vs model 40.9%, 19.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Partick win 0–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 01, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Morton 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Partick 41.0%
- xG · Morton 1.18 — Partick 1.42
-
Aug 01, 2026 · 13:40 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Morton 5.49 · Draw 4.17 · Partick 1.58
- Implied 1X2 · Morton 17.3% · Draw 22.7% · Partick 60.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 01, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Morton 5.49 · Draw 4.17 · Partick 1.58
- Implied 1X2 · Morton 17.3% · Draw 22.7% · Partick 60.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 01, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Partick win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (19 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Championship — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 22 |
| 2 | Raith Rovers | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 3 | Livingston | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Partick | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Arbroath | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Inverness CT | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Ayr Utd | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 9 | Queen's Park | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 10 | Morton | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 8 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 22 |
| 2 | Livingston | 8 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 | Raith Rovers | 8 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 14 |
| 4 | Inverness CT | 8 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 10 |
| 5 | Ayr Utd | 8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 |
| 6 | Dunfermline | 7 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 12 |
| 7 | Arbroath | 8 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 11 |
| 8 | Partick | 7 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 12 |
| 9 | Queen's Park | 8 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 |
| 10 | Morton | 8 | 4 | 15 | -11 | 1 |
