Predictions / Football / Scotland. Championship / Inverness CT vs Dunfermline

Prediction Audit: Inverness CT vs Dunfermline Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Inverness CT Inverness CT
Aug 01, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.28
0 1.32
xG Accuracy: 49%
Dunfermline Dunfermline

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Dunfermline at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Dunfermline Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Dunfermline +4.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Inverness CT 34.2% 37.0% -2.8 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 31.0% -1.3 pp Aligned
Dunfermline 36.1% 32.0% +4.1 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Dunfermline; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 01, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Inverness CT 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Dunfermline 36.1%
    • xG · Inverness CT 1.28 — Dunfermline 1.32
  2. Aug 01, 2026 · 13:40 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Inverness CT 2.58 · Draw 3.08 · Dunfermline 2.98
    • Implied 1X2 · Inverness CT 37.0% · Draw 31.0% · Dunfermline 32.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 01, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · Inverness CT 2.58 · Draw 3.08 · Dunfermline 2.98
    • Implied 1X2 · Inverness CT 37.0% · Draw 31.0% · Dunfermline 32.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 01, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 27/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 03:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1811069

Closing Odds 2.98
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Inverness CT 0–0 Dunfermline
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Championship
  • Fixture: Inverness CT vs Dunfermline
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-01 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Inverness CT 1.28 — Dunfermline 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.6%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Championship Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Stenhousemuir 8 7 1 0 22
2 Raith Rovers 8 4 2 2 14
3 Livingston 8 4 1 3 13
4 Partick 7 3 3 1 12
5 Dunfermline 7 3 3 1 12
6 Arbroath 8 3 2 3 11
7 Inverness CT 8 2 4 2 10
8 Ayr Utd 8 2 2 4 8
9 Queen's Park 8 1 1 6 4
10 Morton 8 0 1 7 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Stenhousemuir 8 12 2 +10 22
2 Livingston 8 12 7 +5 13
3 Raith Rovers 8 11 5 +6 14
4 Inverness CT 8 9 9 0 10
5 Ayr Utd 8 7 9 -2 8
6 Dunfermline 7 6 4 +2 12
7 Arbroath 8 6 10 -4 11
8 Partick 7 5 2 +3 12
9 Queen's Park 8 4 13 -9 4
10 Morton 8 4 15 -11 1