Predictions / Football / Scotland. Premiership / Kilmarnock vs Heart Of Midlothian

Prediction Audit: Kilmarnock vs Heart Of Midlothian Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kilmarnock Kilmarnock
Sep 19, 2026 - 16:45
1 0.93
1 2.22
xG Accuracy: 70%
Heart Of Midlothian Heart Of Midlothian

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Heart Of Midlothian at 65.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Heart Of Midlothian Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-2, 1-2, 0-1, 1-1, 0-3 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Heart Of Midlothian considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Heart Of Midlothian +10.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Kilmarnock 13.3% 21.7% -8.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 21.2% 23.7% -2.5 pp Aligned
Heart Of Midlothian 65.5% 54.6% +10.9 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Heart Of Midlothian's win probability at 65.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 54.6%, a difference of 10.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Heart Of Midlothian.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Heart Of Midlothian by 10.9 percentage points (54.6% vs model 65.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 19, 2026 · 16:44 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Kilmarnock 13.3% · Draw 21.2% · Heart Of Midlothian 65.5%
    • xG · Kilmarnock 0.93 — Heart Of Midlothian 2.22
  2. Sep 19, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Kilmarnock 4.68 · Draw 4.12 · Heart Of Midlothian 1.72
    • Implied 1X2 · Kilmarnock 20.6% · Draw 23.4% · Heart Of Midlothian 56.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 19, 2026 · 16:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Kilmarnock 4.45 · Draw 4.07 · Heart Of Midlothian 1.77
    • Implied 1X2 · Kilmarnock 21.7% · Draw 23.7% · Heart Of Midlothian 54.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 19, 2026 · 16:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (64%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 45/100
Betting Confidence 41/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8704734

Closing Odds 1.77
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Kilmarnock 1–1 Heart Of Midlothian
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Premiership
  • Fixture: Kilmarnock vs Heart Of Midlothian
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 16:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 13.3% · Draw 21.2% · Away 65.5%
  • xG (showing): Kilmarnock 0.93 — Heart Of Midlothian 2.22 (total xG ≈ 3.15)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Heart Of Midlothian
  • Model: 65.5% · Implied: 54.6% · Probability edge: +10.9 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 55.1% · No 44.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-2 (10.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Premiership Premiership — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Celtic 7 6 0 1 18
2 Rangers 7 5 1 1 16
3 Heart Of Midlothian 7 4 1 2 13
4 Dundee 7 3 1 3 10
5 ST Mirren 7 3 1 3 10
6 ST Johnstone 7 2 2 3 8
7 Aberdeen 7 2 2 3 8
8 Dundee Utd 7 2 2 3 8
9 Motherwell 7 2 2 3 8
10 Hibernian 7 2 1 4 7
11 Falkirk 7 1 3 3 6
12 Kilmarnock 7 1 2 4 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Celtic 7 14 4 +10 18
2 Heart Of Midlothian 7 14 8 +6 13
3 Dundee 7 9 7 +2 10
4 ST Johnstone 7 9 10 -1 8
5 Dundee Utd 7 9 11 -2 8
6 Motherwell 7 9 11 -2 8
7 Rangers 7 8 4 +4 16
8 ST Mirren 7 8 9 -1 10
9 Hibernian 7 8 11 -3 7
10 Aberdeen 7 7 8 -1 8
11 Falkirk 7 6 9 -3 6
12 Kilmarnock 7 6 15 -9 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Celtic 7 11.1 1.9 +9.2 18
2 Heart Of Midlothian 7 7.1 4.5 +2.6 13
3 Motherwell 7 7.2 4.8 +2.4 8
4 ST Mirren 7 6.2 4.7 +1.5 10
5 Rangers 7 5.3 3.8 +1.5 16
6 ST Johnstone 7 6.7 5.6 +1.1 8
7 Hibernian 7 7.8 7.3 +0.5 7
8 Dundee Utd 7 6.9 8.3 -1.4 8
9 Aberdeen 7 3.4 5.4 -2.0 8
10 Dundee 7 5.6 8.7 -3.1 10
11 Falkirk 7 1.7 5.3 -3.6 6
12 Kilmarnock 7 3.1 11.9 -8.8 5