Prediction Audit: Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Heart Of Midlothian

Sep 06, 2026 - 14:00

2 1.77

1 1.10

xG Accuracy: 91%

Dundee

AI correctly predicted the Heart Of Midlothian win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Heart Of Midlothian Heart Of Midlothian ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Heart Of Midlothian	51.6%	66.7%	-15.1 pp	Market Higher
Draw	26.3%	19.2%	+7.0 pp	Model Higher
Dundee	22.1%	14.1%	+8.1 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Heart Of Midlothian's win probability at 66.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 51.6%, a difference of 15.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Heart Of Midlothian win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Heart Of Midlothian than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.87) — 3 goals materialised
Heart Of Midlothian attacking xG significantly stronger (1.77 vs 1.10)
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Heart Of Midlothian higher (66.7% vs model 51.6%, 15.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Heart Of Midlothian win 2–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 06, 2026 · 13:57 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Heart Of Midlothian 51.6% · Draw 26.3% · Dundee 22.1%
- xG · Heart Of Midlothian 1.77 — Dundee 1.10
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Heart Of Midlothian 1.46 · Draw 4.90 · Dundee 6.72
- Implied 1X2 · Heart Of Midlothian 66.0% · Draw 19.7% · Dundee 14.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Heart Of Midlothian 1.44 · Draw 5.00 · Dundee 6.84
- Implied 1X2 · Heart Of Midlothian 66.7% · Draw 19.2% · Dundee 14.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 06, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Heart Of Midlothian win · 2–1
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (15 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

Moderate model lean
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 24/100

Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6360998

Closing Odds 1.44

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Heart Of Midlothian win · Heart Of Midlothian 2–1 Dundee

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Premiership
Fixture: Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee
Kickoff: 2026-09-06 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 51.6% · Draw 26.3% · Away 22.1%
xG (showing): Heart Of Midlothian 1.77 — Dundee 1.1 (total xG ≈ 2.87)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 45.3% · Over 2.5 54.7%); BTTS Yes (Yes 56.8% · No 43.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 56.8% · No 43.2%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.0%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Premiership — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Celtic	7	6	0	1	18
2	Rangers	7	5	1	1	16
3	Heart Of Midlothian	7	4	1	2	13
4	Dundee	7	3	1	3	10
5	ST Mirren	7	3	1	3	10
6	ST Johnstone	7	2	2	3	8
7	Aberdeen	7	2	2	3	8
8	Dundee Utd	7	2	2	3	8
9	Motherwell	7	2	2	3	8
10	Hibernian	7	2	1	4	7
11	Falkirk	7	1	3	3	6
12	Kilmarnock	7	1	2	4	5

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Celtic	7	14	4	+10	18
2	Heart Of Midlothian	7	14	8	+6	13
3	Dundee	7	9	7	+2	10
4	ST Johnstone	7	9	10	-1	8
5	Dundee Utd	7	9	11	-2	8
6	Motherwell	7	9	11	-2	8
7	Rangers	7	8	4	+4	16
8	ST Mirren	7	8	9	-1	10
9	Hibernian	7	8	11	-3	7
10	Aberdeen	7	7	8	-1	8
11	Falkirk	7	6	9	-3	6
12	Kilmarnock	7	6	15	-9	5

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Celtic	7	11.1	1.9	+9.2	18
2	Heart Of Midlothian	7	7.1	4.5	+2.6	13
3	Motherwell	7	7.2	4.8	+2.4	8
4	ST Mirren	7	6.2	4.7	+1.5	10
5	Rangers	7	5.3	3.8	+1.5	16
6	ST Johnstone	7	6.7	5.6	+1.1	8
7	Hibernian	7	7.8	7.3	+0.5	7
8	Dundee Utd	7	6.9	8.3	-1.4	8
9	Aberdeen	7	3.4	5.4	-2.0	8
10	Dundee	7	5.6	8.7	-3.1	10
11	Falkirk	7	1.7	5.3	-3.6	6
12	Kilmarnock	7	3.1	11.9	-8.8	5