Predictions / Football / Scotland. Premiership / Dundee Utd vs Rangers

Prediction Audit: Dundee Utd vs Rangers Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dundee Utd Dundee Utd
Jul 31, 2026 - 19:00
1 1.95
1 2.14
xG Accuracy: 56%
Rangers Rangers

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Rangers at 42.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Rangers Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 2-2, 1-1, 2-1, 1-3 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Dundee Utd considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Dundee Utd +17.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Dundee Utd 35.3% 17.8% +17.5 pp Model Edge
Draw 22.2% 22.2% -0.1 pp Aligned
Rangers 42.5% 59.9% -17.4 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Dundee Utd's win probability at 35.3%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 17.8%, a difference of 17.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Dundee Utd.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Rangers; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Rangers by 17.5 percentage points (25.0% vs model 42.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 31, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Dundee Utd 35.3% · Draw 22.2% · Rangers 42.5%
    • xG · Dundee Utd 1.95 — Rangers 2.14
  2. Jul 31, 2026 · 18:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Dundee Utd 5.38 · Draw 4.31 · Rangers 1.60
    • Implied 1X2 · Dundee Utd 17.8% · Draw 22.2% · Rangers 59.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 31, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Dundee Utd 5.38 · Draw 4.31 · Rangers 1.60
    • Implied 1X2 · Dundee Utd 17.8% · Draw 22.2% · Rangers 59.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 31, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 48/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (17 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (59%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 12/100
Betting Confidence 38/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 05:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1679117

Closing Odds 5.38
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Dundee Utd 1–1 Rangers
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Premiership
  • Fixture: Dundee Utd vs Rangers
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-31 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.3% · Draw 22.2% · Away 42.5%
  • xG (showing): Dundee Utd 1.95 — Rangers 2.14 (total xG ≈ 4.09)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 22.5% · Over 2.5 77.5%); BTTS Yes (Yes 76.6% · No 23.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 76.6% · No 23.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (7.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 20, 2026 (UTC)

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Premiership Premiership — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Celtic 6 6 0 0 18
2 Rangers 6 4 1 1 13
3 Heart Of Midlothian 6 4 0 2 12
4 ST Mirren 6 3 1 2 10
5 Motherwell 6 2 2 2 8
6 Dundee 6 2 1 3 7
7 ST Johnstone 6 2 1 3 7
8 Aberdeen 6 2 1 3 7
9 Hibernian 6 2 0 4 6
10 Falkirk 6 1 2 3 5
11 Dundee Utd 6 1 2 3 5
12 Kilmarnock 6 1 1 4 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Celtic 6 14 3 +11 18
2 Heart Of Midlothian 6 13 7 +6 12
3 ST Mirren 6 8 6 +2 10
4 Motherwell 6 8 9 -1 8
5 ST Johnstone 6 8 9 -1 7
6 Rangers 6 7 4 +3 13
7 Dundee 6 7 6 +1 7
8 Hibernian 6 7 10 -3 6
9 Aberdeen 6 6 7 -1 7
10 Dundee Utd 6 6 11 -5 5
11 Falkirk 6 5 8 -3 5
12 Kilmarnock 6 5 14 -9 4
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Celtic 6 11.1 1.9 +9.2 18
2 Heart Of Midlothian 6 7.1 4.5 +2.6 12
3 Motherwell 6 7.2 4.8 +2.4 8
4 ST Mirren 6 6.2 4.7 +1.5 10
5 Rangers 6 5.3 3.8 +1.5 13
6 ST Johnstone 6 6.7 5.6 +1.1 7
7 Hibernian 6 7.8 7.3 +0.5 6
8 Dundee Utd 6 6.9 8.3 -1.4 5
9 Aberdeen 6 3.4 5.4 -2.0 7
10 Dundee 6 5.6 8.7 -3.1 7
11 Falkirk 6 1.7 5.3 -3.6 5
12 Kilmarnock 6 3.1 11.9 -8.8 4