The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected AA Iguaçu at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 AA Iguaçu Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hope Internacional | 31.5% | 18.4% | +13.0 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.5% | 29.0% | +0.6 pp | Aligned |
| AA Iguaçu | 39.0% | 52.6% | -13.6 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates AA Iguaçu's win probability at 52.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 13.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about AA Iguaçu than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned AA Iguaçu; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on AA Iguaçu by 13.6 percentage points (52.6% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Hope Internacional 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · AA Iguaçu 39.0%
- xG · Hope Internacional 1.22 — AA Iguaçu 1.38
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 18:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Hope Internacional 4.76 · Draw 3.06 · AA Iguaçu 1.70
- Implied 1X2 · Hope Internacional 18.7% · Draw 29.1% · AA Iguaçu 52.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Hope Internacional 4.87 · Draw 3.10 · AA Iguaçu 1.71
- Implied 1X2 · Hope Internacional 18.4% · Draw 29.0% · AA Iguaçu 52.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Paranaense - 3 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AA Iguaçu | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 2 | Hope Internacional | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 3 | PSTC Procopense | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Cambé | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | City London | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Oeste Brasil | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | União PR | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Iraty | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | Portuguesa Londrinense | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 9 | Sport Club PR | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 10 | Samas | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 11 | Campo Mourão | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hope Internacional | 6 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 11 |
| 2 | Oeste Brasil | 4 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
| 3 | União PR | 4 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 |
| 4 | Iraty | 6 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 |
| 5 | AA Iguaçu | 6 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 13 |
| 6 | City London | 6 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | PSTC Procopense | 6 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 10 |
| 8 | Portuguesa Londrinense | 6 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 6 |
| 9 | Samas | 6 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3 |
| 10 | Cambé | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Campo Mourão | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 2 |
| 12 | Sport Club PR | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 1 |
