The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Iraty at 36.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Iraty Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hope Internacional | 34.4% | 35.8% | -1.4 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.3% | -0.7 pp | Aligned |
| Iraty | 36.0% | 33.9% | +2.1 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Iraty; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 20:21 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Hope Internacional 34.4% · Draw 29.6% · Iraty 36.1%
- xG · Hope Internacional 1.29 — Iraty 1.31
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 18:04 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Hope Internacional 2.62 · Draw 2.93 · Iraty 2.49
- Implied 1X2 · Hope Internacional 33.9% · Draw 30.4% · Iraty 35.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Hope Internacional 2.51 · Draw 2.97 · Iraty 2.65
- Implied 1X2 · Hope Internacional 35.8% · Draw 30.3% · Iraty 33.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Paranaense - 3 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AA Iguaçu | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 2 | Hope Internacional | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 3 | PSTC Procopense | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Cambé | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | City London | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Oeste Brasil | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | União PR | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Iraty | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | Portuguesa Londrinense | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 9 | Sport Club PR | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 10 | Samas | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 11 | Campo Mourão | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hope Internacional | 6 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 11 |
| 2 | Oeste Brasil | 4 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
| 3 | União PR | 4 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 |
| 4 | Iraty | 6 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 |
| 5 | AA Iguaçu | 6 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 13 |
| 6 | City London | 6 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | PSTC Procopense | 6 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 10 |
| 8 | Portuguesa Londrinense | 6 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 6 |
| 9 | Samas | 6 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3 |
| 10 | Cambé | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Campo Mourão | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 2 |
| 12 | Sport Club PR | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 1 |
