Predictions / Football / Morocco. Botola 2 / Widad Témara vs Raja Beni Mellal

Prediction Audit: Widad Témara vs Raja Beni Mellal Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Widad Témara Widad Témara
Jun 20, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.07
1 0.83
xG Accuracy: 74%
Raja Beni Mellal Raja Beni Mellal

AI correctly predicted the Widad Témara win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Widad Témara Widad Témara ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Raja Beni Mellal considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Raja Beni Mellal +5.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Widad Témara 40.0% 41.6% -1.6 pp Aligned
Draw 35.1% 39.4% -4.2 pp Aligned
Raja Beni Mellal 24.9% 19.1% +5.8 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Raja Beni Mellal's win probability at 24.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 19.1%, a difference of 5.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Widad Témara win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Raja Beni Mellal.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Widad Témara more conservatively (34.2% vs model 40.0%, 5.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Widad Témara win 2–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 20, 2026 · 20:41 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Widad Témara 40.0% · Draw 35.1% · Raja Beni Mellal 24.9%
    • xG · Widad Témara 1.07 — Raja Beni Mellal 0.83
  2. Jun 20, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Widad Témara 2.14 · Draw 2.26 · Raja Beni Mellal 4.66
    • Implied 1X2 · Widad Témara 41.6% · Draw 39.4% · Raja Beni Mellal 19.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 20, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Widad Témara 2.14 · Draw 2.26 · Raja Beni Mellal 4.66
    • Implied 1X2 · Widad Témara 41.6% · Draw 39.4% · Raja Beni Mellal 19.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 20, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Widad Témara win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 71/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 11:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2604086

Closing Odds 4.66
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Widad Témara win · Widad Témara 2–1 Raja Beni Mellal
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Botola 2
  • Fixture: Widad Témara vs Raja Beni Mellal
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-20 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Widad Témara 1.07 — Raja Beni Mellal 0.83 (total xG ≈ 1.9)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Botola 2 Botola 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Moghreb Tetouan 30 14 11 5 53
2 Widad Témara 30 13 14 3 53
3 Amal Tiznit 30 10 16 4 46
4 El Massira 30 11 11 8 44
5 Chabab Atl. Khenifra 30 11 10 9 43
6 Riadi Salmi 30 10 12 8 42
7 Stade Marocain 30 11 8 11 41
8 Wydad Fès 30 9 11 10 38
9 Mouloudia Oujda 30 8 13 9 37
10 Chabab Ben Guerir 30 8 13 9 37
11 USM Oujda 30 9 10 11 37
12 Chabab Mohammédia 30 9 9 12 36
13 KAC Kenitra 30 8 12 10 36
14 Union Sportive Boujaad 30 7 14 9 35
15 Raja Beni Mellal 30 7 11 12 32
16 Racing de Casablanca 30 3 9 18 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Riadi Salmi 30 37 35 +2 42
2 Widad Témara 30 36 26 +10 53
3 Amal Tiznit 30 36 26 +10 46
4 KAC Kenitra 30 35 36 -1 36
5 Mouloudia Oujda 30 35 38 -3 37
6 Wydad Fès 30 34 30 +4 38
7 Moghreb Tetouan 30 33 22 +11 53
8 El Massira 30 29 21 +8 44
9 USM Oujda 30 29 30 -1 37
10 Chabab Atl. Khenifra 30 26 24 +2 43
11 Union Sportive Boujaad 30 25 22 +3 35
12 Chabab Ben Guerir 30 25 28 -3 37
13 Raja Beni Mellal 30 25 32 -7 32
14 Chabab Mohammédia 30 25 37 -12 36
15 Stade Marocain 30 23 24 -1 41
16 Racing de Casablanca 30 21 43 -22 18
Botola 2 Morocco. Botola 2 Predictions