Predictions / Football / Morocco. Botola 2 / Riadi Salmi vs USM Oujda

Prediction Audit: Riadi Salmi vs USM Oujda Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Riadi Salmi Riadi Salmi
Jun 20, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.01
0 0.89
xG Accuracy: 60%
USM Oujda USM Oujda

AI correctly predicted the Riadi Salmi win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Riadi Salmi Riadi Salmi ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Riadi Salmi -4.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Riadi Salmi 37.2% 41.5% -4.3 pp Aligned
Draw 34.2% 31.2% +3.1 pp Aligned
USM Oujda 28.6% 27.3% +1.2 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Riadi Salmi win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.90, 2 goals)
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Riadi Salmi win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 20, 2026 · 20:40 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Riadi Salmi 37.2% · Draw 34.2% · USM Oujda 28.6%
    • xG · Riadi Salmi 1.01 — USM Oujda 0.89
  2. Jun 20, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Riadi Salmi 2.14 · Draw 2.85 · USM Oujda 3.25
    • Implied 1X2 · Riadi Salmi 41.5% · Draw 31.2% · USM Oujda 27.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 20, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Riadi Salmi 2.14 · Draw 2.85 · USM Oujda 3.25
    • Implied 1X2 · Riadi Salmi 41.5% · Draw 31.2% · USM Oujda 27.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 20, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Riadi Salmi win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 78/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 05:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1823813

Closing Odds 2.14
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Riadi Salmi win · Riadi Salmi 2–0 USM Oujda
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Botola 2
  • Fixture: Riadi Salmi vs USM Oujda
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-20 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Riadi Salmi 1.01 — USM Oujda 0.89 (total xG ≈ 1.9)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Botola 2 Botola 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Moghreb Tetouan 30 14 11 5 53
2 Widad Témara 30 13 14 3 53
3 Amal Tiznit 30 10 16 4 46
4 El Massira 30 11 11 8 44
5 Chabab Atl. Khenifra 30 11 10 9 43
6 Riadi Salmi 30 10 12 8 42
7 Stade Marocain 30 11 8 11 41
8 Wydad Fès 30 9 11 10 38
9 Mouloudia Oujda 30 8 13 9 37
10 Chabab Ben Guerir 30 8 13 9 37
11 USM Oujda 30 9 10 11 37
12 Chabab Mohammédia 30 9 9 12 36
13 KAC Kenitra 30 8 12 10 36
14 Union Sportive Boujaad 30 7 14 9 35
15 Raja Beni Mellal 30 7 11 12 32
16 Racing de Casablanca 30 3 9 18 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Riadi Salmi 30 37 35 +2 42
2 Widad Témara 30 36 26 +10 53
3 Amal Tiznit 30 36 26 +10 46
4 KAC Kenitra 30 35 36 -1 36
5 Mouloudia Oujda 30 35 38 -3 37
6 Wydad Fès 30 34 30 +4 38
7 Moghreb Tetouan 30 33 22 +11 53
8 El Massira 30 29 21 +8 44
9 USM Oujda 30 29 30 -1 37
10 Chabab Atl. Khenifra 30 26 24 +2 43
11 Union Sportive Boujaad 30 25 22 +3 35
12 Chabab Ben Guerir 30 25 28 -3 37
13 Raja Beni Mellal 30 25 32 -7 32
14 Chabab Mohammédia 30 25 37 -12 36
15 Stade Marocain 30 23 24 -1 41
16 Racing de Casablanca 30 21 43 -22 18
Botola 2 Morocco. Botola 2 Predictions