The model missed the final outcome (Aarhus win 0–3).
The model had projected Lech Poznan at 45.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Lech Poznan Aarhus ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznan | 45.5% | 55.3% | -9.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 27.5% | 24.1% | +3.4 pp | Aligned |
| Aarhus | 27.0% | 20.6% | +6.4 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Lech Poznan's win probability at 55.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 45.5%, a difference of 9.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Aarhus win 0–3.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Lech Poznan. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Lech Poznan by 9.8 percentage points (55.3% vs model 45.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 29, 2026 · 19:53 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Lech Poznan 45.4% · Draw 27.5% · Aarhus 27.0%
- xG · Lech Poznan 1.36 — Aarhus 1.24
-
Jul 29, 2026 · 16:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Lech Poznan 1.68 · Draw 3.85 · Aarhus 4.50
- Implied 1X2 · Lech Poznan 55.3% · Draw 24.1% · Aarhus 20.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 29, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Lech Poznan 1.68 · Draw 3.85 · Aarhus 4.50
- Implied 1X2 · Lech Poznan 55.3% · Draw 24.1% · Aarhus 20.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 29, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Aarhus win · 0–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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UEFA Champions League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Bayern München | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Barcelona | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Manchester United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Como | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Sporting CP | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Manchester City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Lens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Real Betis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 15 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | AEK Athens FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 17 | AS Roma | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Fenerbahce | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 22 | Lille | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 | Slavia Praha | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 24 | Club Brugge KV | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 | Inter | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 | Atletico Madrid | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 | Napoli | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 | Lask Linz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 29 | Viking | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 30 | Galatasaray | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 31 | FC Porto | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 32 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 33 | Feyenoord | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 34 | Sabah FA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 35 | Slovan Bratislava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 36 | Bodo/Glimt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 1 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 3 |
| 2 | Bayern München | 1 | 5 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 3 | Barcelona | 1 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 3 |
| 4 | Manchester United | 1 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 5 | Como | 1 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 7 | Sporting CP | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Lens | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 10 | Real Betis | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 11 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 12 | Manchester City | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 14 | Real Madrid | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 15 | Villarreal | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Lille | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Slavia Praha | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Club Brugge KV | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 20 | AEK Athens FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 21 | AS Roma | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 22 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 23 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 24 | Fenerbahce | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 25 | Inter | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Atletico Madrid | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Viking | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 28 | Galatasaray | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
| 30 | Feyenoord | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
| 31 | Slovan Bratislava | 1 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 0 |
| 32 | Napoli | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 33 | Lask Linz | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 34 | FC Porto | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 35 | Sabah FA | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
| 36 | Bodo/Glimt | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 1 | 2.3 | 0.3 | +2.0 | 3 |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 1 | 3.2 | 1.5 | +1.7 | 3 |
| 3 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | +1.5 | 3 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 1 | 2.9 | 1.8 | +1.1 | 3 |
| 5 | Real Betis | 1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | +1.0 | 3 |
| 6 | AEK Athens FC | 1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | +1.0 | 3 |
| 7 | Liverpool | 1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | +0.7 | 3 |
| 8 | Sporting CP | 1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | +0.6 | 3 |
| 9 | Galatasaray | 1 | 1.2 | 1.8 | -0.6 | 0 |
| 10 | Atletico Madrid | 1 | 0.9 | 1.6 | -0.7 | 0 |
| 11 | Lille | 1 | 0.8 | 1.8 | -1.0 | 0 |
| 12 | Lask Linz | 1 | 0.7 | 1.7 | -1.0 | 0 |
| 13 | Inter | 1 | 1.8 | 2.9 | -1.1 | 0 |
| 14 | Villarreal | 1 | 1.3 | 2.8 | -1.5 | 0 |
| 15 | Club Brugge KV | 1 | 1.5 | 3.2 | -1.7 | 0 |
| 16 | FC Porto | 1 | 0.3 | 2.3 | -2.0 | 0 |
| 17 | Paris Saint Germain | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 18 | Bayern München | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 19 | Barcelona | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 20 | Manchester United | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 21 | Como | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 22 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 23 | Lens | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 24 | Arsenal | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 25 | AS Roma | 1 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 26 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 27 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 28 | Fenerbahce | 1 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 29 | Slavia Praha | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 30 | Napoli | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 31 | Viking | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 32 | RB Leipzig | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 33 | Feyenoord | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 34 | Sabah FA | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 35 | Slovan Bratislava | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 36 | Bodo/Glimt | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
