Predictions / Football / Lithuania. 1 Lyga / Kauno Žalgiris II vs Garliava

Prediction Audit: Kauno Žalgiris II vs Garliava Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kauno Žalgiris II Kauno Žalgiris II
Sep 19, 2026 - 16:00
3 1.34
2 1.26
xG Accuracy: 52%
Garliava Garliava

AI correctly predicted the Kauno Žalgiris II win.

The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Kauno Žalgiris II Kauno Žalgiris II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Garliava higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Garliava -6.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Kauno Žalgiris II 37.1% 35.5% +1.6 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 25.0% +4.6 pp Aligned
Garliava 33.3% 39.5% -6.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Garliava's win probability at 39.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 6.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Kauno Žalgiris II win 3–2).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Garliava. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Kauno Žalgiris II higher (43.3% vs model 37.1%, 6.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Kauno Žalgiris II win 3–2).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 19, 2026 · 15:57 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Kauno Žalgiris II 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Garliava 33.4%
    • xG · Kauno Žalgiris II 1.34 — Garliava 1.26
  2. Sep 19, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Kauno Žalgiris II 2.51 · Draw 3.56 · Garliava 2.25
    • Implied 1X2 · Kauno Žalgiris II 35.5% · Draw 25.0% · Garliava 39.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 19, 2026 · 15:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Kauno Žalgiris II 2.51 · Draw 3.56 · Garliava 2.25
    • Implied 1X2 · Kauno Žalgiris II 35.5% · Draw 25.0% · Garliava 39.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 19, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Kauno Žalgiris II win · 3–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 23/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8701775

Closing Odds 2.25
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Kauno Žalgiris II win · Kauno Žalgiris II 3–2 Garliava
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 1 Lyga
  • Fixture: Kauno Žalgiris II vs Garliava
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Kauno Žalgiris II 1.34 — Garliava 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 46.3% · Probability edge: +5.5 pts · Est. EV: +8.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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1 Lyga 1 Lyga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Minija 24 21 1 2 64
2 Babrungas 25 19 4 2 61
3 Be1 NFA 24 16 2 6 50
4 Neptūną Klaipėda 25 14 2 9 44
5 Tauras 25 13 4 8 43
6 Žalgiris II 25 13 4 8 43
7 BFA 25 13 4 8 43
8 Dainava 24 11 7 6 40
9 Atmosfera 24 8 6 10 30
10 Jonava 25 7 6 12 27
11 Garliava 24 6 4 14 22
12 Kauno Žalgiris II 24 7 1 16 22
13 Hegelmann II 25 7 1 17 22
14 Transinvest 2 25 6 3 16 21
15 FA Šiauliai II 25 4 5 16 17
16 Ekranas 25 4 2 19 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Minija 24 63 13 +50 64
2 Babrungas 25 43 11 +32 61
3 Be1 NFA 24 43 25 +18 50
4 Tauras 25 43 31 +12 43
5 BFA 25 39 35 +4 43
6 Žalgiris II 25 38 32 +6 43
7 Atmosfera 24 37 33 +4 30
8 Dainava 24 34 23 +11 40
9 Neptūną Klaipėda 25 33 30 +3 44
10 Hegelmann II 25 30 56 -26 22
11 Transinvest 2 25 29 58 -29 21
12 Jonava 25 28 33 -5 27
13 Garliava 24 27 30 -3 22
14 FA Šiauliai II 25 27 56 -29 17
15 Ekranas 25 25 58 -33 14
16 Kauno Žalgiris II 24 23 38 -15 22
1 Lyga Lithuania. 1 Lyga Predictions