Predictions / Football / Lithuania. 1 Lyga / FA Šiauliai II vs Be1 NFA

Prediction Audit: FA Šiauliai II vs Be1 NFA Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FA Šiauliai II FA Šiauliai II
Sep 14, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 57%
Be1 NFA Be1 NFA

The model missed the final outcome (Be1 NFA win 0–2).

The model had projected FA Šiauliai II at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FA Šiauliai II Be1 NFA ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Be1 NFA higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Be1 NFA -23.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
FA Šiauliai II 36.1% 18.9% +17.2 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 23.5% +6.1 pp Model Higher
Be1 NFA 34.2% 57.6% -23.4 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Be1 NFA's win probability at 57.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 23.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Be1 NFA win 0–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned FA Šiauliai II; match finished Be1 NFA
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on FA Šiauliai II by 23.4 percentage points (59.5% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 14, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · FA Šiauliai II 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Be1 NFA 34.2%
    • xG · FA Šiauliai II 1.32 — Be1 NFA 1.28
  2. Sep 14, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · FA Šiauliai II 4.70 · Draw 3.77 · Be1 NFA 1.54
    • Implied 1X2 · FA Šiauliai II 18.9% · Draw 23.5% · Be1 NFA 57.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 14, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · FA Šiauliai II 4.70 · Draw 3.77 · Be1 NFA 1.54
    • Implied 1X2 · FA Šiauliai II 18.9% · Draw 23.5% · Be1 NFA 57.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 14, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Be1 NFA win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (23 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 08, 2026 · 02:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7572042

Closing Odds 1.54
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Be1 NFA win · FA Šiauliai II 0–2 Be1 NFA
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 1 Lyga
  • Fixture: FA Šiauliai II vs Be1 NFA
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-14 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): FA Šiauliai II 1.32 — Be1 NFA 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 40.2% · Probability edge: +11.6 pts · Est. EV: +42.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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1 Lyga 1 Lyga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Minija 24 21 1 2 64
2 Babrungas 25 19 4 2 61
3 Be1 NFA 24 16 2 6 50
4 Neptūną Klaipėda 25 14 2 9 44
5 Tauras 25 13 4 8 43
6 Žalgiris II 25 13 4 8 43
7 BFA 25 13 4 8 43
8 Dainava 24 11 7 6 40
9 Atmosfera 24 8 6 10 30
10 Jonava 25 7 6 12 27
11 Garliava 24 6 4 14 22
12 Kauno Žalgiris II 24 7 1 16 22
13 Hegelmann II 25 7 1 17 22
14 Transinvest 2 25 6 3 16 21
15 FA Šiauliai II 25 4 5 16 17
16 Ekranas 25 4 2 19 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Minija 24 63 13 +50 64
2 Babrungas 25 43 11 +32 61
3 Be1 NFA 24 43 25 +18 50
4 Tauras 25 43 31 +12 43
5 BFA 25 39 35 +4 43
6 Žalgiris II 25 38 32 +6 43
7 Atmosfera 24 37 33 +4 30
8 Dainava 24 34 23 +11 40
9 Neptūną Klaipėda 25 33 30 +3 44
10 Hegelmann II 25 30 56 -26 22
11 Transinvest 2 25 29 58 -29 21
12 Jonava 25 28 33 -5 27
13 Garliava 24 27 30 -3 22
14 FA Šiauliai II 25 27 56 -29 17
15 Ekranas 25 25 58 -33 14
16 Kauno Žalgiris II 24 23 38 -15 22
1 Lyga Lithuania. 1 Lyga Predictions