Predictions / Football / Lithuania. 1 Lyga / Transinvest 2 vs Hegelmann II

Prediction Audit: Transinvest 2 vs Hegelmann II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

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Transinvest 2
Sep 11, 2026 - 15:00
4 1.37
1 1.23
xG Accuracy: 46%
Hegelmann II Hegelmann II

AI correctly predicted the Transinvest 2 win.

The match finished 4–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Transinvest 2 Transinvest 2 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Transinvest 2 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Transinvest 2 -17.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Transinvest 2 38.5% 55.5% -17.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 23.0% +6.6 pp Model Higher
Hegelmann II 31.9% 21.5% +10.4 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Transinvest 2's win probability at 55.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 17.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Transinvest 2 win 4–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Transinvest 2 than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Transinvest 2 higher (55.5% vs model 38.5%, 17.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Transinvest 2 win 4–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 11, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Transinvest 2 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Hegelmann II 31.9%
    • xG · Transinvest 2 1.37 — Hegelmann II 1.23
  2. Sep 11, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Transinvest 2 1.60 · Draw 3.86 · Hegelmann II 4.13
    • Implied 1X2 · Transinvest 2 55.5% · Draw 23.0% · Hegelmann II 21.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 11, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Transinvest 2 1.60 · Draw 3.86 · Hegelmann II 4.13
    • Implied 1X2 · Transinvest 2 55.5% · Draw 23.0% · Hegelmann II 21.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 11, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Transinvest 2 win · 4–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (17 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 14/100
Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 01:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7027824

Closing Odds 1.6
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Transinvest 2 win · Transinvest 2 4–1 Hegelmann II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1 Lyga
  • Fixture: Transinvest 2 vs Hegelmann II
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-11 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Transinvest 2 1.37 — Hegelmann II 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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1 Lyga 1 Lyga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Minija 24 21 1 2 64
2 Babrungas 25 19 4 2 61
3 Be1 NFA 24 16 2 6 50
4 Neptūną Klaipėda 25 14 2 9 44
5 Tauras 25 13 4 8 43
6 Žalgiris II 25 13 4 8 43
7 BFA 25 13 4 8 43
8 Dainava 24 11 7 6 40
9 Atmosfera 24 8 6 10 30
10 Jonava 25 7 6 12 27
11 Garliava 24 6 4 14 22
12 Kauno Žalgiris II 24 7 1 16 22
13 Hegelmann II 25 7 1 17 22
14 Transinvest 2 25 6 3 16 21
15 FA Šiauliai II 25 4 5 16 17
16 Ekranas 25 4 2 19 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Minija 24 63 13 +50 64
2 Babrungas 25 43 11 +32 61
3 Be1 NFA 24 43 25 +18 50
4 Tauras 25 43 31 +12 43
5 BFA 25 39 35 +4 43
6 Žalgiris II 25 38 32 +6 43
7 Atmosfera 24 37 33 +4 30
8 Dainava 24 34 23 +11 40
9 Neptūną Klaipėda 25 33 30 +3 44
10 Hegelmann II 25 30 56 -26 22
11 Transinvest 2 25 29 58 -29 21
12 Jonava 25 28 33 -5 27
13 Garliava 24 27 30 -3 22
14 FA Šiauliai II 25 27 56 -29 17
15 Ekranas 25 25 58 -33 14
16 Kauno Žalgiris II 24 23 38 -15 22
1 Lyga Lithuania. 1 Lyga Predictions