Predictions / Football / Lithuania. 1 Lyga / Žalgiris II vs Kauno Žalgiris II

Prediction Audit: Žalgiris II vs Kauno Žalgiris II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Žalgiris II Žalgiris II
Aug 10, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.37
1 1.23
xG Accuracy: 79%
Kauno Žalgiris II Kauno Žalgiris II

AI correctly predicted the Žalgiris II win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Žalgiris II Žalgiris II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Žalgiris II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Žalgiris II -7.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Žalgiris II 38.5% 46.0% -7.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 24.8% +4.8 pp Aligned
Kauno Žalgiris II 31.9% 29.2% +2.7 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Žalgiris II's win probability at 46.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 7.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Žalgiris II win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Žalgiris II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Žalgiris II higher (46.0% vs model 38.5%, 7.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Žalgiris II win 2–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 10, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Žalgiris II 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Kauno Žalgiris II 31.9%
    • xG · Žalgiris II 1.37 — Kauno Žalgiris II 1.23
  2. Aug 10, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Žalgiris II 1.93 · Draw 3.58 · Kauno Žalgiris II 3.04
    • Implied 1X2 · Žalgiris II 46.0% · Draw 24.8% · Kauno Žalgiris II 29.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 10, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Žalgiris II 1.93 · Draw 3.58 · Kauno Žalgiris II 3.04
    • Implied 1X2 · Žalgiris II 46.0% · Draw 24.8% · Kauno Žalgiris II 29.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 10, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Žalgiris II win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 62/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 02:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3017969

Closing Odds 1.93
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Žalgiris II win · Žalgiris II 2–1 Kauno Žalgiris II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1 Lyga
  • Fixture: Žalgiris II vs Kauno Žalgiris II
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-10 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Žalgiris II 1.37 — Kauno Žalgiris II 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming 1 Lyga Matches Track Žalgiris II Next Match Prediction Track Kauno Žalgiris II Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Žalgiris II & Kauno Žalgiris II!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
1 Lyga 1 Lyga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Minija 24 21 1 2 64
2 Babrungas 25 19 4 2 61
3 Be1 NFA 24 16 2 6 50
4 Neptūną Klaipėda 25 14 2 9 44
5 Tauras 25 13 4 8 43
6 Žalgiris II 25 13 4 8 43
7 BFA 25 13 4 8 43
8 Dainava 24 11 7 6 40
9 Atmosfera 24 8 6 10 30
10 Jonava 25 7 6 12 27
11 Garliava 24 6 4 14 22
12 Kauno Žalgiris II 24 7 1 16 22
13 Hegelmann II 25 7 1 17 22
14 Transinvest 2 25 6 3 16 21
15 FA Šiauliai II 25 4 5 16 17
16 Ekranas 25 4 2 19 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Minija 24 63 13 +50 64
2 Babrungas 25 43 11 +32 61
3 Be1 NFA 24 43 25 +18 50
4 Tauras 25 43 31 +12 43
5 BFA 25 39 35 +4 43
6 Žalgiris II 25 38 32 +6 43
7 Atmosfera 24 37 33 +4 30
8 Dainava 24 34 23 +11 40
9 Neptūną Klaipėda 25 33 30 +3 44
10 Hegelmann II 25 30 56 -26 22
11 Transinvest 2 25 29 58 -29 21
12 Jonava 25 28 33 -5 27
13 Garliava 24 27 30 -3 22
14 FA Šiauliai II 25 27 56 -29 17
15 Ekranas 25 25 58 -33 14
16 Kauno Žalgiris II 24 23 38 -15 22
1 Lyga Lithuania. 1 Lyga Predictions