Prediction Audit: Kitakyushu vs Matsumoto Yamaga Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kitakyushu

Aug 30, 2026 - 09:00

1 1.39

1 1.21

xG Accuracy: 85%

Matsumoto Yamaga

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Kitakyushu at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Kitakyushu Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Kitakyushu	39.5%	35.6%	+3.8 pp	Aligned
Draw	29.5%	28.0%	+1.5 pp	Aligned
Matsumoto Yamaga	31.0%	36.4%	-5.3 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Matsumoto Yamaga's win probability at 36.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 5.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Matsumoto Yamaga. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

1X2: model leaned Kitakyushu; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Kitakyushu by 5.3 percentage points (44.8% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 30, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Kitakyushu 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Matsumoto Yamaga 31.0%
- xG · Kitakyushu 1.39 — Matsumoto Yamaga 1.21
Aug 30, 2026 · 08:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Kitakyushu 2.57 · Draw 3.27 · Matsumoto Yamaga 2.52
- Implied 1X2 · Kitakyushu 35.6% · Draw 28.0% · Matsumoto Yamaga 36.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 30, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Kitakyushu 2.57 · Draw 3.27 · Matsumoto Yamaga 2.52
- Implied 1X2 · Kitakyushu 35.6% · Draw 28.0% · Matsumoto Yamaga 36.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 30, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Market Compatibility 25/100

Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 01:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5286565

Closing Odds 2.52

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Kitakyushu 1–1 Matsumoto Yamaga

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: J3 League
Fixture: Kitakyushu vs Matsumoto Yamaga
Kickoff: 2026-08-30 09:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
xG (showing): Kitakyushu 1.39 — Matsumoto Yamaga 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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J3 League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Kagoshima United	8	6	2	0	20
2	Ehime FC	8	5	2	1	17
3	Osaka	8	4	4	0	16
4	Renofa Yamaguchi	8	4	2	2	14
5	Nara Club	8	4	2	2	14
6	FC Gifu	8	4	1	3	13
7	Roasso Kumamoto	8	3	4	1	13
8	Sagamihara	8	3	3	2	12
9	Biwako Shiga	8	4	0	4	12
10	FC Ryukyu	8	3	2	3	11
11	Parceiro Nagano	8	3	2	3	11
12	Kanazawa	8	3	1	4	10
13	Gainare Tottori	8	3	1	4	10
14	Tochigi SC	8	2	3	3	9
15	Matsumoto Yamaga	8	1	5	2	8
16	Fukushima United	8	2	1	5	7
17	Kitakyushu	8	1	4	3	7
18	Thespakusatsu Gunma	8	2	0	6	6
19	Kochi United	8	1	2	5	5
20	Kamatamare Sanuki	8	1	1	6	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	FC Gifu	8	19	8	+11	13
2	Ehime FC	8	19	9	+10	17
3	Nara Club	8	18	16	+2	14
4	Osaka	8	17	7	+10	16
5	Kagoshima United	8	16	8	+8	20
6	Fukushima United	8	16	20	-4	7
7	Sagamihara	8	14	10	+4	12
8	Kanazawa	8	14	13	+1	10
9	Biwako Shiga	8	14	14	0	12
10	Renofa Yamaguchi	8	11	7	+4	14
11	Parceiro Nagano	8	11	12	-1	11
12	Tochigi SC	8	11	14	-3	9
13	Gainare Tottori	8	11	18	-7	10
14	FC Ryukyu	8	10	10	0	11
15	Kitakyushu	8	10	16	-6	7
16	Kamatamare Sanuki	8	10	17	-7	4
17	Matsumoto Yamaga	8	8	10	-2	8
18	Roasso Kumamoto	8	7	4	+3	13
19	Thespakusatsu Gunma	8	7	15	-8	6
20	Kochi United	8	3	18	-15	5