Prediction Audit: Ehime FC vs Gainare Tottori Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ehime FC

Aug 16, 2026 - 10:00

4 1.32

0 1.28

xG Accuracy: 34%

Gainare Tottori

AI correctly predicted the Ehime FC win.

The match finished 4–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Ehime FC Ehime FC ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Ehime FC	36.1%	51.7%	-15.6 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	26.2%	+3.4 pp	Aligned
Gainare Tottori	34.2%	22.0%	+12.2 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Ehime FC's win probability at 51.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 15.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Ehime FC win 4–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Ehime FC than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Ehime FC higher (51.7% vs model 36.1%, 15.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Ehime FC win 4–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 16, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Ehime FC 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Gainare Tottori 34.2%
- xG · Ehime FC 1.32 — Gainare Tottori 1.28
Aug 16, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Ehime FC 1.77 · Draw 3.49 · Gainare Tottori 4.16
- Implied 1X2 · Ehime FC 51.7% · Draw 26.2% · Gainare Tottori 22.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 16, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Ehime FC 1.77 · Draw 3.49 · Gainare Tottori 4.16
- Implied 1X2 · Ehime FC 51.7% · Draw 26.2% · Gainare Tottori 22.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 16, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Ehime FC win · 4–0
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (16 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 21/100

Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 00:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3600301

Closing Odds 1.77

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Ehime FC win · Ehime FC 4–0 Gainare Tottori

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: J3 League
Fixture: Ehime FC vs Gainare Tottori
Kickoff: 2026-08-16 10:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Ehime FC 1.32 — Gainare Tottori 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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J3 League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Kagoshima United	8	6	2	0	20
2	Ehime FC	8	5	2	1	17
3	Osaka	8	4	4	0	16
4	Renofa Yamaguchi	8	4	2	2	14
5	Nara Club	8	4	2	2	14
6	FC Gifu	8	4	1	3	13
7	Roasso Kumamoto	8	3	4	1	13
8	Sagamihara	8	3	3	2	12
9	Biwako Shiga	8	4	0	4	12
10	FC Ryukyu	8	3	2	3	11
11	Parceiro Nagano	8	3	2	3	11
12	Kanazawa	8	3	1	4	10
13	Gainare Tottori	8	3	1	4	10
14	Tochigi SC	8	2	3	3	9
15	Matsumoto Yamaga	8	1	5	2	8
16	Fukushima United	8	2	1	5	7
17	Kitakyushu	8	1	4	3	7
18	Thespakusatsu Gunma	8	2	0	6	6
19	Kochi United	8	1	2	5	5
20	Kamatamare Sanuki	8	1	1	6	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	FC Gifu	8	19	8	+11	13
2	Ehime FC	8	19	9	+10	17
3	Nara Club	8	18	16	+2	14
4	Osaka	8	17	7	+10	16
5	Kagoshima United	8	16	8	+8	20
6	Fukushima United	8	16	20	-4	7
7	Sagamihara	8	14	10	+4	12
8	Kanazawa	8	14	13	+1	10
9	Biwako Shiga	8	14	14	0	12
10	Renofa Yamaguchi	8	11	7	+4	14
11	Parceiro Nagano	8	11	12	-1	11
12	Tochigi SC	8	11	14	-3	9
13	Gainare Tottori	8	11	18	-7	10
14	FC Ryukyu	8	10	10	0	11
15	Kitakyushu	8	10	16	-6	7
16	Kamatamare Sanuki	8	10	17	-7	4
17	Matsumoto Yamaga	8	8	10	-2	8
18	Roasso Kumamoto	8	7	4	+3	13
19	Thespakusatsu Gunma	8	7	15	-8	6
20	Kochi United	8	3	18	-15	5