The model missed the final outcome (Hapoel Katamon win 2–4).
The model had projected Maccabi Petah Tikva at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Maccabi Petah Tikva Hapoel Katamon ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-4 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maccabi Petah Tikva | 35.2% | 38.6% | -3.4 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.6% | -0.9 pp | Aligned |
| Hapoel Katamon | 35.2% | 30.9% | +4.3 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Hapoel Katamon win 2–4.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Maccabi Petah Tikva; match finished Hapoel Katamon
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was Hapoel Katamon win 2–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Maccabi Petah Tikva 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Hapoel Katamon 35.2%
- xG · Maccabi Petah Tikva 1.30 — Hapoel Katamon 1.30
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 16:21 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Maccabi Petah Tikva 2.47 · Draw 3.12 · Hapoel Katamon 3.09
- Implied 1X2 · Maccabi Petah Tikva 38.6% · Draw 30.6% · Hapoel Katamon 30.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Maccabi Petah Tikva 2.47 · Draw 3.12 · Hapoel Katamon 3.09
- Implied 1X2 · Maccabi Petah Tikva 38.6% · Draw 30.6% · Hapoel Katamon 30.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Hapoel Katamon win · 2–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Ligat Ha'al — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Maccabi Haifa | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Beitar Jerusalem | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Hapoel Katamon | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Hapoel Haifa | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Maccabi Netanya | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 10 | Bnei Sakhnin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 12 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 13 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | Ironi Tiberias | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 5 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 15 |
| 2 | Maccabi Haifa | 5 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 12 |
| 3 | Hapoel Katamon | 5 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 5 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 5 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 5 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 6 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 5 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 |
| 7 | Hapoel Haifa | 5 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 8 | Ironi Tiberias | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 1 |
| 9 | Beitar Jerusalem | 5 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Maccabi Netanya | 5 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 5 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 |
| 12 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 5 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3 |
| 13 | Bnei Sakhnin | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 5 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 |
