The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Hapoel Beer Sheva at 59.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Hapoel Beer Sheva Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-0, 2-0, 1-1, 2-1, 0-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hapoel Beer Sheva | 59.9% | 67.0% | -7.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 26.0% | 18.9% | +7.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Hapoel Haifa | 14.1% | 14.1% | +0.0 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Hapoel Beer Sheva's win probability at 67.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 59.9%, a difference of 7.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Hapoel Beer Sheva. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Hapoel Beer Sheva by 7.1 percentage points (67.0% vs model 59.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 02, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Hapoel Beer Sheva 59.9% · Draw 26.0% · Hapoel Haifa 14.1%
- xG · Hapoel Beer Sheva 1.74 — Hapoel Haifa 0.74
-
Sep 02, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Hapoel Beer Sheva 1.41 · Draw 5.01 · Hapoel Haifa 6.70
- Implied 1X2 · Hapoel Beer Sheva 67.0% · Draw 18.9% · Hapoel Haifa 14.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 02, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Hapoel Beer Sheva 1.41 · Draw 5.01 · Hapoel Haifa 6.70
- Implied 1X2 · Hapoel Beer Sheva 67.0% · Draw 18.9% · Hapoel Haifa 14.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 02, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- Strong model lean
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Ligat Ha'al — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Maccabi Haifa | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Beitar Jerusalem | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Hapoel Katamon | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Hapoel Haifa | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Maccabi Netanya | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 10 | Bnei Sakhnin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 12 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 13 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | Ironi Tiberias | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 5 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 15 |
| 2 | Maccabi Haifa | 5 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 12 |
| 3 | Hapoel Katamon | 5 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 5 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 5 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 5 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 6 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 5 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 |
| 7 | Hapoel Haifa | 5 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 8 | Ironi Tiberias | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 1 |
| 9 | Beitar Jerusalem | 5 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Maccabi Netanya | 5 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 5 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 |
| 12 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 5 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3 |
| 13 | Bnei Sakhnin | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 5 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 |
