Predictions / Football / Switzerland. Super League / FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys

Prediction Audit: FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FC Thun FC Thun
Aug 01, 2026 - 18:30
0 2.01
6 1.73
xG Accuracy: 18%
BSC Young Boys BSC Young Boys

The model missed the final outcome (BSC Young Boys win 0–6).

The model had projected FC Thun at 41.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 FC Thun BSC Young Boys ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-2, 1-2, 3-1 0-6 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices BSC Young Boys higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: BSC Young Boys -15.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
FC Thun 41.1% 27.6% +13.5 pp Model Edge
Draw 23.8% 21.7% +2.1 pp Aligned
BSC Young Boys 35.1% 50.8% -15.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates BSC Young Boys's win probability at 50.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.1%, a difference of 15.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was BSC Young Boys win 0–6.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about BSC Young Boys than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.74) — 6 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned FC Thun; match finished BSC Young Boys

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on FC Thun by 15.6 percentage points (56.7% vs model 41.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 01, 2026 · 19:32 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · FC Thun 41.1% · Draw 23.8% · BSC Young Boys 35.1%
    • xG · FC Thun 2.01 — BSC Young Boys 1.73
  2. Aug 01, 2026 · 18:04 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · FC Thun 2.73 · Draw 4.06 · BSC Young Boys 2.37
    • Implied 1X2 · FC Thun 35.4% · Draw 23.8% · BSC Young Boys 40.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 01, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · FC Thun 3.50 · Draw 4.45 · BSC Young Boys 1.90
    • Implied 1X2 · FC Thun 27.6% · Draw 21.7% · BSC Young Boys 50.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 01, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result BSC Young Boys win · 0–6
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 7/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 05:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1824541

Closing Odds 1.9
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result BSC Young Boys win · FC Thun 0–6 BSC Young Boys
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Super League
  • Fixture: FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-01 18:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.1% · Draw 23.8% · Away 35.1%
  • xG (showing): FC Thun 2.01 — BSC Young Boys 1.73 (total xG ≈ 3.74)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): FC Thun
  • Model: 41.1% · Implied: 27.6% · Probability edge: +13.6 pts · Est. EV: +7.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 72.3% · No 27.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (8.3%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Super League Super League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC Lugano 9 8 1 0 25
2 BSC Young Boys 9 5 4 0 19
3 FC Sion 9 6 1 2 19
4 FC Basel 1893 9 4 1 4 13
5 FC ST. Gallen 9 4 1 4 13
6 FC Luzern 9 3 3 3 12
7 FC Zurich 9 3 2 4 11
8 Servette FC 9 3 1 5 10
9 FC Thun 9 3 1 5 10
10 Grasshoppers 9 2 2 5 8
11 FC Vaduz 9 2 0 7 6
12 Lausanne 9 1 3 5 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 BSC Young Boys 9 31 18 +13 19
2 FC Lugano 9 27 7 +20 25
3 FC Sion 9 23 14 +9 19
4 FC Vaduz 9 18 21 -3 6
5 FC Basel 1893 9 17 17 0 13
6 FC Luzern 9 17 18 -1 12
7 FC ST. Gallen 9 16 19 -3 13
8 FC Thun 9 15 23 -8 10
9 FC Zurich 9 14 20 -6 11
10 Grasshoppers 9 13 24 -11 8
11 Servette FC 9 11 13 -2 10
12 Lausanne 9 7 15 -8 6
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 FC ST. Gallen 9 13.1 8.8 +4.3 13
2 FC Sion 9 12.0 7.9 +4.1 19
3 BSC Young Boys 9 10.9 6.8 +4.1 19
4 FC Lugano 9 9.0 5.6 +3.4 25
5 Servette FC 9 7.0 6.7 +0.3 10
6 FC Basel 1893 9 7.0 6.8 +0.2 13
7 Grasshoppers 9 8.8 9.1 -0.3 8
8 Lausanne 9 4.3 5.8 -1.5 6
9 FC Zurich 9 6.4 8.3 -1.9 11
10 FC Luzern 9 6.7 9.7 -3.0 12
11 FC Vaduz 9 8.4 12.1 -3.7 6
12 FC Thun 9 6.7 12.7 -6.0 10