AI correctly predicted the Ashdod win.
The match finished 1–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Ashdod Ashdod ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ironi Modi'in | 32.4% | 14.8% | +17.6 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 21.0% | +8.6 pp | Model Higher |
| Ashdod | 38.0% | 64.3% | -26.3 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Ashdod's win probability at 64.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 26.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Ashdod win 1–3).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Ashdod higher (64.3% vs model 38.0%, 26.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Ashdod win 1–3).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Ironi Modi'in 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Ashdod 38.0%
- xG · Ironi Modi'in 1.24 — Ashdod 1.36
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Ironi Modi'in 6.05 · Draw 4.26 · Ashdod 1.39
- Implied 1X2 · Ironi Modi'in 14.8% · Draw 21.0% · Ashdod 64.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Ironi Modi'in 6.05 · Draw 4.26 · Ashdod 1.39
- Implied 1X2 · Ironi Modi'in 14.8% · Draw 21.0% · Ashdod 64.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Ashdod win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (26 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore More Predictions Content
Get Premium Predictions for Ironi Modi'in & Ashdod!
Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.
Subscribe Now
Liga Leumit — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ashdod | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | Bnei Yehuda | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 3 | Hapoel Rishon LeZion | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Hapoel Ra'anana | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Maccabi Bnei Raina | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Hapoel Afula | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Kiryat Yam SC | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Maccabi Herzliya | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Maccabi Kiryat Gat | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Hapoel Kfar Shalem | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 11 | Kafr Qasim | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 12 | Maccabi Ahi Nazareth | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 13 | Hapoel Kfar Saba | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 14 | Ironi Modi'in | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 15 | Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 16 | Hapoel Acre | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kiryat Yam SC | 6 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | Hapoel Ra'anana | 6 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 12 |
| 3 | Bnei Yehuda | 6 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 14 |
| 4 | Ashdod | 6 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 15 |
| 5 | Hapoel Rishon LeZion | 6 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 13 |
| 6 | Hapoel Kfar Shalem | 6 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 8 |
| 7 | Maccabi Bnei Raina | 6 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 12 |
| 8 | Hapoel Afula | 6 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Kafr Qasim | 6 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 7 |
| 10 | Ironi Modi'in | 6 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 5 |
| 11 | Hapoel Kfar Saba | 6 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 6 |
| 12 | Maccabi Herzliya | 6 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Maccabi Ahi Nazareth | 6 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Maccabi Kiryat Gat | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 8 |
| 15 | Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa | 6 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 3 |
| 16 | Hapoel Acre | 6 | 0 | 19 | -19 | 0 |
