Predictions / Football / Israel. Liga Leumit / Hapoel Kfar Shalem vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

Prediction Audit: Hapoel Kfar Shalem vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hapoel Kfar Shalem Hapoel Kfar Shalem
Sep 28, 2026 - 16:00
3 1.25
1 1.35
xG Accuracy: 56%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

The model missed the final outcome (Hapoel Kfar Shalem win 3–1).

The model had projected Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa Hapoel Kfar Shalem ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Hapoel Kfar Shalem higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Hapoel Kfar Shalem -16.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Hapoel Kfar Shalem 32.9% 49.1% -16.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 24.4% +5.2 pp Model Higher
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 37.5% 26.4% +11.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Hapoel Kfar Shalem's win probability at 49.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 16.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Hapoel Kfar Shalem win 3–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Hapoel Kfar Shalem than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa by 16.3 percentage points (53.8% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 28, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Hapoel Kfar Shalem 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 37.6%
    • xG · Hapoel Kfar Shalem 1.25 — Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1.35
  2. Sep 28, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Hapoel Kfar Shalem 1.86 · Draw 3.74 · Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3.46
    • Implied 1X2 · Hapoel Kfar Shalem 49.1% · Draw 24.4% · Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 26.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 28, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Hapoel Kfar Shalem 1.86 · Draw 3.74 · Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3.46
    • Implied 1X2 · Hapoel Kfar Shalem 49.1% · Draw 24.4% · Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 26.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 28, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Hapoel Kfar Shalem win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 6/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 22, 2026 · 02:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10250864

Closing Odds 1.86
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Hapoel Kfar Shalem win · Hapoel Kfar Shalem 3–1 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga Leumit
  • Fixture: Hapoel Kfar Shalem vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-28 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Hapoel Kfar Shalem 1.25 — Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 38.5% · Probability edge: +13.3 pts · Est. EV: +32.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Leumit Liga Leumit — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ashdod 7 6 0 1 18
2 Bnei Yehuda 7 5 2 0 17
3 Hapoel Rishon LeZion 7 5 1 1 16
4 Hapoel Ra'anana 7 5 0 2 15
5 Hapoel Afula 7 4 1 2 13
6 Kiryat Yam SC 7 4 0 3 12
7 Maccabi Bnei Raina 7 4 0 3 12
8 Hapoel Kfar Shalem 7 3 2 2 11
9 Kafr Qasim 7 3 1 3 10
10 Maccabi Kiryat Gat 7 2 2 3 8
11 Maccabi Herzliya 7 2 2 3 8
12 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 7 2 1 4 7
13 Hapoel Kfar Saba 7 2 0 5 6
14 Ironi Modi'in 7 1 2 4 5
15 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 7 1 0 6 3
16 Hapoel Acre 7 0 0 7 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kiryat Yam SC 7 21 13 +8 12
2 Hapoel Ra'anana 7 18 9 +9 15
3 Ashdod 7 17 6 +11 18
4 Bnei Yehuda 7 17 6 +11 17
5 Hapoel Kfar Shalem 7 15 16 -1 11
6 Hapoel Afula 7 14 10 +4 13
7 Hapoel Rishon LeZion 7 13 7 +6 16
8 Maccabi Bnei Raina 7 12 11 +1 12
9 Kafr Qasim 7 10 7 +3 10
10 Ironi Modi'in 7 10 14 -4 5
11 Hapoel Kfar Saba 7 9 18 -9 6
12 Maccabi Herzliya 7 8 10 -2 8
13 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 7 7 10 -3 7
14 Maccabi Kiryat Gat 7 6 7 -1 8
15 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 7 6 17 -11 3
16 Hapoel Acre 7 0 22 -22 0
Liga Leumit Israel. Liga Leumit Predictions