Predictions / Football / Israel. Liga Leumit / Hapoel Acre vs Hapoel Afula

Prediction Audit: Hapoel Acre vs Hapoel Afula Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hapoel Acre Hapoel Acre
Sep 24, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.29
3 1.31
xG Accuracy: 44%
Hapoel Afula Hapoel Afula

AI correctly predicted the Hapoel Afula win.

The match finished 0–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Hapoel Afula Hapoel Afula ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Hapoel Afula higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Hapoel Afula -19.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Hapoel Acre 34.7% 22.2% +12.4 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 23.0% +6.7 pp Model Higher
Hapoel Afula 35.6% 54.8% -19.1 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Hapoel Afula's win probability at 54.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 19.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Hapoel Afula win 0–3).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Hapoel Afula than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Hapoel Afula higher (54.7% vs model 35.6%, 19.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Hapoel Afula win 0–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 24, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Hapoel Acre 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Hapoel Afula 35.6%
    • xG · Hapoel Acre 1.29 — Hapoel Afula 1.31
  2. Sep 24, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Hapoel Acre 4.11 · Draw 3.98 · Hapoel Afula 1.67
    • Implied 1X2 · Hapoel Acre 22.2% · Draw 23.0% · Hapoel Afula 54.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 24, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Hapoel Acre 4.11 · Draw 3.98 · Hapoel Afula 1.67
    • Implied 1X2 · Hapoel Acre 22.2% · Draw 23.0% · Hapoel Afula 54.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 24, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Hapoel Afula win · 0–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (19 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 4/100
Betting Confidence 42/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 18, 2026 · 01:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9340057

Closing Odds 1.67
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Hapoel Afula win · Hapoel Acre 0–3 Hapoel Afula
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga Leumit
  • Fixture: Hapoel Acre vs Hapoel Afula
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-24 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Hapoel Acre 1.29 — Hapoel Afula 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Leumit Liga Leumit — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ashdod 6 5 0 1 15
2 Bnei Yehuda 6 4 2 0 14
3 Hapoel Rishon LeZion 6 4 1 1 13
4 Hapoel Ra'anana 6 4 0 2 12
5 Maccabi Bnei Raina 6 4 0 2 12
6 Hapoel Afula 6 3 1 2 10
7 Kiryat Yam SC 6 3 0 3 9
8 Maccabi Herzliya 6 2 2 2 8
9 Maccabi Kiryat Gat 6 2 2 2 8
10 Hapoel Kfar Shalem 6 2 2 2 8
11 Kafr Qasim 6 2 1 3 7
12 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 6 2 1 3 7
13 Hapoel Kfar Saba 6 2 0 4 6
14 Ironi Modi'in 6 1 2 3 5
15 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 6 1 0 5 3
16 Hapoel Acre 6 0 0 6 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kiryat Yam SC 6 18 12 +6 9
2 Hapoel Ra'anana 6 16 8 +8 12
3 Bnei Yehuda 6 15 5 +10 14
4 Ashdod 6 14 5 +9 15
5 Hapoel Rishon LeZion 6 12 7 +5 13
6 Hapoel Kfar Shalem 6 12 15 -3 8
7 Maccabi Bnei Raina 6 11 9 +2 12
8 Hapoel Afula 6 11 10 +1 10
9 Kafr Qasim 6 9 7 +2 7
10 Ironi Modi'in 6 9 11 -2 5
11 Hapoel Kfar Saba 6 8 16 -8 6
12 Maccabi Herzliya 6 7 7 0 8
13 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 6 7 9 -2 7
14 Maccabi Kiryat Gat 6 6 6 0 8
15 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 6 5 14 -9 3
16 Hapoel Acre 6 0 19 -19 0
Liga Leumit Israel. Liga Leumit Predictions