Predictions / Football / Israel. Liga Leumit / Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa vs Maccabi Bnei Raina

Prediction Audit: Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa vs Maccabi Bnei Raina Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Sep 17, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.35
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 56%
Maccabi Bnei Raina Maccabi Bnei Raina

The model missed the final outcome (Maccabi Bnei Raina win 0–2).

The model had projected Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa Maccabi Bnei Raina ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Maccabi Bnei Raina higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Maccabi Bnei Raina -16.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 37.5% 25.1% +12.4 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 25.4% +4.2 pp Aligned
Maccabi Bnei Raina 32.9% 49.5% -16.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Maccabi Bnei Raina's win probability at 49.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 16.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Maccabi Bnei Raina win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Maccabi Bnei Raina than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa; match finished Maccabi Bnei Raina
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa by 16.6 percentage points (54.1% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 17, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Maccabi Bnei Raina 32.9%
    • xG · Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1.35 — Maccabi Bnei Raina 1.25
  2. Sep 17, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3.64 · Draw 3.61 · Maccabi Bnei Raina 1.85
    • Implied 1X2 · Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 25.1% · Draw 25.4% · Maccabi Bnei Raina 49.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 17, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3.64 · Draw 3.61 · Maccabi Bnei Raina 1.85
    • Implied 1X2 · Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 25.1% · Draw 25.4% · Maccabi Bnei Raina 49.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 17, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Maccabi Bnei Raina win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (17 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 5/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 11, 2026 · 03:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7996924

Closing Odds 1.85
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Maccabi Bnei Raina win · Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 0–2 Maccabi Bnei Raina
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga Leumit
  • Fixture: Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa vs Maccabi Bnei Raina
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-17 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1.35 — Maccabi Bnei Raina 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 44.6% · Probability edge: +7.2 pts · Est. EV: +10.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Liga Leumit Matches Track Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa Next Match Prediction Track Maccabi Bnei Raina Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa & Maccabi Bnei Raina!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Liga Leumit Liga Leumit — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ashdod 7 6 0 1 18
2 Bnei Yehuda 7 5 2 0 17
3 Hapoel Rishon LeZion 7 5 1 1 16
4 Hapoel Ra'anana 7 5 0 2 15
5 Hapoel Afula 7 4 1 2 13
6 Kiryat Yam SC 7 4 0 3 12
7 Maccabi Bnei Raina 7 4 0 3 12
8 Hapoel Kfar Shalem 7 3 2 2 11
9 Kafr Qasim 7 3 1 3 10
10 Maccabi Kiryat Gat 7 2 2 3 8
11 Maccabi Herzliya 7 2 2 3 8
12 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 7 2 1 4 7
13 Hapoel Kfar Saba 7 2 0 5 6
14 Ironi Modi'in 7 1 2 4 5
15 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 7 1 0 6 3
16 Hapoel Acre 7 0 0 7 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kiryat Yam SC 7 21 13 +8 12
2 Hapoel Ra'anana 7 18 9 +9 15
3 Ashdod 7 17 6 +11 18
4 Bnei Yehuda 7 17 6 +11 17
5 Hapoel Kfar Shalem 7 15 16 -1 11
6 Hapoel Afula 7 14 10 +4 13
7 Hapoel Rishon LeZion 7 13 7 +6 16
8 Maccabi Bnei Raina 7 12 11 +1 12
9 Kafr Qasim 7 10 7 +3 10
10 Ironi Modi'in 7 10 14 -4 5
11 Hapoel Kfar Saba 7 9 18 -9 6
12 Maccabi Herzliya 7 8 10 -2 8
13 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 7 7 10 -3 7
14 Maccabi Kiryat Gat 7 6 7 -1 8
15 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 7 6 17 -11 3
16 Hapoel Acre 7 0 22 -22 0
Liga Leumit Israel. Liga Leumit Predictions