Predictions / Football / Israel. Liga Leumit / Hapoel Ra'anana vs Maccabi Kiryat Gat

Prediction Audit: Hapoel Ra'anana vs Maccabi Kiryat Gat Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hapoel Ra'anana Hapoel Ra'anana
Sep 17, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 64%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat Maccabi Kiryat Gat

The model missed the final outcome (Maccabi Kiryat Gat win 0–1).

The model had projected Hapoel Ra'anana at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Hapoel Ra'anana Maccabi Kiryat Gat ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Hapoel Ra'anana higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Hapoel Ra'anana -10.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Hapoel Ra'anana 36.1% 47.0% -10.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 26.9% +2.7 pp Aligned
Maccabi Kiryat Gat 34.2% 26.1% +8.2 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Hapoel Ra'anana's win probability at 47.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 10.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Maccabi Kiryat Gat win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Hapoel Ra'anana than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Hapoel Ra'anana; match finished Maccabi Kiryat Gat

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Hapoel Ra'anana by 10.9 percentage points (47.0% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 17, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Hapoel Ra'anana 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Maccabi Kiryat Gat 34.2%
    • xG · Hapoel Ra'anana 1.32 — Maccabi Kiryat Gat 1.28
  2. Sep 17, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Hapoel Ra'anana 1.95 · Draw 3.40 · Maccabi Kiryat Gat 3.51
    • Implied 1X2 · Hapoel Ra'anana 47.0% · Draw 26.9% · Maccabi Kiryat Gat 26.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 17, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Hapoel Ra'anana 1.95 · Draw 3.40 · Maccabi Kiryat Gat 3.51
    • Implied 1X2 · Hapoel Ra'anana 47.0% · Draw 26.9% · Maccabi Kiryat Gat 26.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 17, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Maccabi Kiryat Gat win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 45/100
Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 11, 2026 · 03:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7996841

Closing Odds 1.95
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Maccabi Kiryat Gat win · Hapoel Ra'anana 0–1 Maccabi Kiryat Gat
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga Leumit
  • Fixture: Hapoel Ra'anana vs Maccabi Kiryat Gat
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-17 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Hapoel Ra'anana 1.32 — Maccabi Kiryat Gat 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 46.9% · Probability edge: +4.9 pts · Est. EV: +7.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Leumit Liga Leumit — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ashdod 7 6 0 1 18
2 Bnei Yehuda 7 5 2 0 17
3 Hapoel Rishon LeZion 7 5 1 1 16
4 Hapoel Ra'anana 7 5 0 2 15
5 Hapoel Afula 7 4 1 2 13
6 Kiryat Yam SC 7 4 0 3 12
7 Maccabi Bnei Raina 7 4 0 3 12
8 Hapoel Kfar Shalem 7 3 2 2 11
9 Kafr Qasim 7 3 1 3 10
10 Maccabi Kiryat Gat 7 2 2 3 8
11 Maccabi Herzliya 7 2 2 3 8
12 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 7 2 1 4 7
13 Hapoel Kfar Saba 7 2 0 5 6
14 Ironi Modi'in 7 1 2 4 5
15 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 7 1 0 6 3
16 Hapoel Acre 7 0 0 7 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kiryat Yam SC 7 21 13 +8 12
2 Hapoel Ra'anana 7 18 9 +9 15
3 Ashdod 7 17 6 +11 18
4 Bnei Yehuda 7 17 6 +11 17
5 Hapoel Kfar Shalem 7 15 16 -1 11
6 Hapoel Afula 7 14 10 +4 13
7 Hapoel Rishon LeZion 7 13 7 +6 16
8 Maccabi Bnei Raina 7 12 11 +1 12
9 Kafr Qasim 7 10 7 +3 10
10 Ironi Modi'in 7 10 14 -4 5
11 Hapoel Kfar Saba 7 9 18 -9 6
12 Maccabi Herzliya 7 8 10 -2 8
13 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 7 7 10 -3 7
14 Maccabi Kiryat Gat 7 6 7 -1 8
15 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 7 6 17 -11 3
16 Hapoel Acre 7 0 22 -22 0