Predictions / Football / Israel. Liga Leumit / Maccabi Bnei Raina vs Hapoel Afula

Prediction Audit: Maccabi Bnei Raina vs Hapoel Afula Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Maccabi Bnei Raina Maccabi Bnei Raina
Sep 10, 2026 - 16:00
4 1.37
2 1.23
xG Accuracy: 39%
Hapoel Afula Hapoel Afula

AI correctly predicted the Maccabi Bnei Raina win.

The match finished 4–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Maccabi Bnei Raina Maccabi Bnei Raina ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Maccabi Bnei Raina higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Maccabi Bnei Raina -11.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Maccabi Bnei Raina 38.5% 49.7% -11.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 25.9% +3.7 pp Aligned
Hapoel Afula 31.9% 24.4% +7.5 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Maccabi Bnei Raina's win probability at 49.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 11.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Maccabi Bnei Raina win 4–2).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Maccabi Bnei Raina than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Maccabi Bnei Raina higher (49.7% vs model 38.5%, 11.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Maccabi Bnei Raina win 4–2).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 10, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Maccabi Bnei Raina 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Hapoel Afula 31.9%
    • xG · Maccabi Bnei Raina 1.37 — Hapoel Afula 1.23
  2. Sep 10, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Maccabi Bnei Raina 1.84 · Draw 3.53 · Hapoel Afula 3.75
    • Implied 1X2 · Maccabi Bnei Raina 49.7% · Draw 25.9% · Hapoel Afula 24.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 10, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Maccabi Bnei Raina 1.84 · Draw 3.53 · Hapoel Afula 3.75
    • Implied 1X2 · Maccabi Bnei Raina 49.7% · Draw 25.9% · Hapoel Afula 24.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 10, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Maccabi Bnei Raina win · 4–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 43/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 04, 2026 · 01:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6849604

Closing Odds 1.84
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Maccabi Bnei Raina win · Maccabi Bnei Raina 4–2 Hapoel Afula
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga Leumit
  • Fixture: Maccabi Bnei Raina vs Hapoel Afula
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-10 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Maccabi Bnei Raina 1.37 — Hapoel Afula 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.4% · Implied: 52.8% · Probability edge: +1.6 pts · Est. EV: +3.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Leumit Liga Leumit — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ashdod 7 6 0 1 18
2 Bnei Yehuda 7 5 2 0 17
3 Hapoel Rishon LeZion 7 5 1 1 16
4 Hapoel Ra'anana 7 5 0 2 15
5 Hapoel Afula 7 4 1 2 13
6 Kiryat Yam SC 7 4 0 3 12
7 Maccabi Bnei Raina 7 4 0 3 12
8 Hapoel Kfar Shalem 7 3 2 2 11
9 Kafr Qasim 7 3 1 3 10
10 Maccabi Kiryat Gat 7 2 2 3 8
11 Maccabi Herzliya 7 2 2 3 8
12 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 7 2 1 4 7
13 Hapoel Kfar Saba 7 2 0 5 6
14 Ironi Modi'in 7 1 2 4 5
15 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 7 1 0 6 3
16 Hapoel Acre 7 0 0 7 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kiryat Yam SC 7 21 13 +8 12
2 Hapoel Ra'anana 7 18 9 +9 15
3 Ashdod 7 17 6 +11 18
4 Bnei Yehuda 7 17 6 +11 17
5 Hapoel Kfar Shalem 7 15 16 -1 11
6 Hapoel Afula 7 14 10 +4 13
7 Hapoel Rishon LeZion 7 13 7 +6 16
8 Maccabi Bnei Raina 7 12 11 +1 12
9 Kafr Qasim 7 10 7 +3 10
10 Ironi Modi'in 7 10 14 -4 5
11 Hapoel Kfar Saba 7 9 18 -9 6
12 Maccabi Herzliya 7 8 10 -2 8
13 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 7 7 10 -3 7
14 Maccabi Kiryat Gat 7 6 7 -1 8
15 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 7 6 17 -11 3
16 Hapoel Acre 7 0 22 -22 0
Liga Leumit Israel. Liga Leumit Predictions