Predictions / Football / Israel. Liga Leumit / Maccabi Ahi Nazareth vs Maccabi Bnei Raina

Prediction Audit: Maccabi Ahi Nazareth vs Maccabi Bnei Raina Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
Sep 06, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 75%
Maccabi Bnei Raina Maccabi Bnei Raina

The model missed the final outcome (Maccabi Bnei Raina win 1–2).

The model had projected Maccabi Ahi Nazareth at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth Maccabi Bnei Raina ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Maccabi Bnei Raina higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Maccabi Bnei Raina -10.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 36.1% 26.9% +9.2 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 28.4% +1.2 pp Aligned
Maccabi Bnei Raina 34.2% 44.7% -10.4 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Maccabi Bnei Raina's win probability at 44.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 10.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Maccabi Bnei Raina win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Maccabi Bnei Raina than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Maccabi Ahi Nazareth; match finished Maccabi Bnei Raina

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Maccabi Ahi Nazareth by 10.4 percentage points (46.5% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Maccabi Bnei Raina 34.2%
    • xG · Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 1.32 — Maccabi Bnei Raina 1.28
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 08:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 3.41 · Draw 3.22 · Maccabi Bnei Raina 2.05
    • Implied 1X2 · Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 26.9% · Draw 28.4% · Maccabi Bnei Raina 44.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 3.41 · Draw 3.22 · Maccabi Bnei Raina 2.05
    • Implied 1X2 · Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 26.9% · Draw 28.4% · Maccabi Bnei Raina 44.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Maccabi Bnei Raina win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 16/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6321075

Closing Odds 2.05
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Maccabi Bnei Raina win · Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 1–2 Maccabi Bnei Raina
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga Leumit
  • Fixture: Maccabi Ahi Nazareth vs Maccabi Bnei Raina
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 09:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 1.32 — Maccabi Bnei Raina 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Leumit Liga Leumit — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ashdod 7 6 0 1 18
2 Bnei Yehuda 7 5 2 0 17
3 Hapoel Rishon LeZion 7 5 1 1 16
4 Hapoel Ra'anana 7 5 0 2 15
5 Hapoel Afula 7 4 1 2 13
6 Kiryat Yam SC 7 4 0 3 12
7 Maccabi Bnei Raina 7 4 0 3 12
8 Hapoel Kfar Shalem 7 3 2 2 11
9 Kafr Qasim 7 3 1 3 10
10 Maccabi Kiryat Gat 7 2 2 3 8
11 Maccabi Herzliya 7 2 2 3 8
12 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 7 2 1 4 7
13 Hapoel Kfar Saba 7 2 0 5 6
14 Ironi Modi'in 7 1 2 4 5
15 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 7 1 0 6 3
16 Hapoel Acre 7 0 0 7 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kiryat Yam SC 7 21 13 +8 12
2 Hapoel Ra'anana 7 18 9 +9 15
3 Ashdod 7 17 6 +11 18
4 Bnei Yehuda 7 17 6 +11 17
5 Hapoel Kfar Shalem 7 15 16 -1 11
6 Hapoel Afula 7 14 10 +4 13
7 Hapoel Rishon LeZion 7 13 7 +6 16
8 Maccabi Bnei Raina 7 12 11 +1 12
9 Kafr Qasim 7 10 7 +3 10
10 Ironi Modi'in 7 10 14 -4 5
11 Hapoel Kfar Saba 7 9 18 -9 6
12 Maccabi Herzliya 7 8 10 -2 8
13 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 7 7 10 -3 7
14 Maccabi Kiryat Gat 7 6 7 -1 8
15 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 7 6 17 -11 3
16 Hapoel Acre 7 0 22 -22 0