Predictions / Football / Israel. Liga Leumit / Hapoel Afula vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

Prediction Audit: Hapoel Afula vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hapoel Afula Hapoel Afula
Sep 06, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.24
1 1.36
xG Accuracy: 64%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

AI correctly predicted the Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa win.

The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Hapoel Afula higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Hapoel Afula -8.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Hapoel Afula 32.4% 40.9% -8.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 25.8% +3.8 pp Aligned
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 38.0% 33.3% +4.7 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Hapoel Afula's win probability at 40.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 8.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa win 0–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Hapoel Afula. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa higher (46.5% vs model 38.0%, 8.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa win 0–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Hapoel Afula 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 38.0%
    • xG · Hapoel Afula 1.24 — Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1.36
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Hapoel Afula 2.24 · Draw 3.56 · Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2.75
    • Implied 1X2 · Hapoel Afula 40.9% · Draw 25.8% · Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 33.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Hapoel Afula 2.24 · Draw 3.56 · Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2.75
    • Implied 1X2 · Hapoel Afula 40.9% · Draw 25.8% · Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 33.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 19/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6366492

Closing Odds 2.24
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa win · Hapoel Afula 0–1 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga Leumit
  • Fixture: Hapoel Afula vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
  • xG (showing): Hapoel Afula 1.24 — Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 48.4% · Probability edge: +3.4 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Leumit Liga Leumit — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ashdod 6 5 0 1 15
2 Bnei Yehuda 6 4 2 0 14
3 Hapoel Rishon LeZion 6 4 1 1 13
4 Hapoel Ra'anana 6 4 0 2 12
5 Maccabi Bnei Raina 6 4 0 2 12
6 Hapoel Afula 6 3 1 2 10
7 Kiryat Yam SC 6 3 0 3 9
8 Maccabi Herzliya 6 2 2 2 8
9 Maccabi Kiryat Gat 6 2 2 2 8
10 Hapoel Kfar Shalem 6 2 2 2 8
11 Kafr Qasim 6 2 1 3 7
12 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 6 2 1 3 7
13 Hapoel Kfar Saba 6 2 0 4 6
14 Ironi Modi'in 6 1 2 3 5
15 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 6 1 0 5 3
16 Hapoel Acre 6 0 0 6 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kiryat Yam SC 6 18 12 +6 9
2 Hapoel Ra'anana 6 16 8 +8 12
3 Bnei Yehuda 6 15 5 +10 14
4 Ashdod 6 14 5 +9 15
5 Hapoel Rishon LeZion 6 12 7 +5 13
6 Hapoel Kfar Shalem 6 12 15 -3 8
7 Maccabi Bnei Raina 6 11 9 +2 12
8 Hapoel Afula 6 11 10 +1 10
9 Kafr Qasim 6 9 7 +2 7
10 Ironi Modi'in 6 9 11 -2 5
11 Hapoel Kfar Saba 6 8 16 -8 6
12 Maccabi Herzliya 6 7 7 0 8
13 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 6 7 9 -2 7
14 Maccabi Kiryat Gat 6 6 6 0 8
15 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 6 5 14 -9 3
16 Hapoel Acre 6 0 19 -19 0
Liga Leumit Israel. Liga Leumit Predictions