The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Maccabi Kiryat Gat at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Maccabi Kiryat Gat Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ironi Modi'in | 32.4% | 37.4% | -5.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.6% | +4.0 pp | Aligned |
| Maccabi Kiryat Gat | 38.0% | 37.0% | +1.0 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Ironi Modi'in's win probability at 37.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 5.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Ironi Modi'in. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Maccabi Kiryat Gat; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Maccabi Kiryat Gat by 5.0 percentage points (43.0% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 15:56 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Ironi Modi'in 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Maccabi Kiryat Gat 38.0%
- xG · Ironi Modi'in 1.24 — Maccabi Kiryat Gat 1.36
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Ironi Modi'in 2.45 · Draw 3.58 · Maccabi Kiryat Gat 2.48
- Implied 1X2 · Ironi Modi'in 37.4% · Draw 25.6% · Maccabi Kiryat Gat 37.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 15:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Ironi Modi'in 2.45 · Draw 3.58 · Maccabi Kiryat Gat 2.48
- Implied 1X2 · Ironi Modi'in 37.4% · Draw 25.6% · Maccabi Kiryat Gat 37.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga Leumit — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ashdod | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 2 | Bnei Yehuda | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
| 3 | Hapoel Rishon LeZion | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Hapoel Ra'anana | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Hapoel Afula | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Kiryat Yam SC | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Maccabi Bnei Raina | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Hapoel Kfar Shalem | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Kafr Qasim | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Maccabi Kiryat Gat | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 11 | Maccabi Herzliya | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 | Maccabi Ahi Nazareth | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 13 | Hapoel Kfar Saba | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 14 | Ironi Modi'in | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 15 | Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
| 16 | Hapoel Acre | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kiryat Yam SC | 7 | 21 | 13 | +8 | 12 |
| 2 | Hapoel Ra'anana | 7 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 15 |
| 3 | Ashdod | 7 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 | Bnei Yehuda | 7 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 17 |
| 5 | Hapoel Kfar Shalem | 7 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 11 |
| 6 | Hapoel Afula | 7 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 13 |
| 7 | Hapoel Rishon LeZion | 7 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 16 |
| 8 | Maccabi Bnei Raina | 7 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 12 |
| 9 | Kafr Qasim | 7 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 10 |
| 10 | Ironi Modi'in | 7 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 5 |
| 11 | Hapoel Kfar Saba | 7 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 6 |
| 12 | Maccabi Herzliya | 7 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Maccabi Ahi Nazareth | 7 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | Maccabi Kiryat Gat | 7 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 15 | Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa | 7 | 6 | 17 | -11 | 3 |
| 16 | Hapoel Acre | 7 | 0 | 22 | -22 | 0 |
