Predictions / Football / Israel. Liga Leumit / Hapoel Acre vs Bnei Yehuda

Prediction Audit: Hapoel Acre vs Bnei Yehuda Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hapoel Acre Hapoel Acre
Aug 31, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.25
3 1.35
xG Accuracy: 45%
Bnei Yehuda Bnei Yehuda

AI correctly predicted the Bnei Yehuda win.

The match finished 0–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Bnei Yehuda Bnei Yehuda ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Bnei Yehuda higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Bnei Yehuda -22.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Hapoel Acre 32.9% 16.6% +16.2 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 23.6% +6.0 pp Model Higher
Bnei Yehuda 37.5% 59.8% -22.3 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Bnei Yehuda's win probability at 59.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 22.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Bnei Yehuda win 0–3).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Bnei Yehuda higher (59.8% vs model 37.5%, 22.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Bnei Yehuda win 0–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 31, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Hapoel Acre 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Bnei Yehuda 37.6%
    • xG · Hapoel Acre 1.25 — Bnei Yehuda 1.35
  2. Aug 31, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Hapoel Acre 5.26 · Draw 3.76 · Bnei Yehuda 1.51
    • Implied 1X2 · Hapoel Acre 17.0% · Draw 23.8% · Bnei Yehuda 59.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 31, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Hapoel Acre 5.47 · Draw 3.86 · Bnei Yehuda 1.52
    • Implied 1X2 · Hapoel Acre 16.6% · Draw 23.6% · Bnei Yehuda 59.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 31, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Bnei Yehuda win · 0–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (22 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 02:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5299599

Closing Odds 1.52
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Bnei Yehuda win · Hapoel Acre 0–3 Bnei Yehuda
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga Leumit
  • Fixture: Hapoel Acre vs Bnei Yehuda
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-31 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Hapoel Acre 1.25 — Bnei Yehuda 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Leumit Liga Leumit — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ashdod 6 5 0 1 15
2 Bnei Yehuda 6 4 2 0 14
3 Hapoel Rishon LeZion 6 4 1 1 13
4 Hapoel Ra'anana 6 4 0 2 12
5 Maccabi Bnei Raina 6 4 0 2 12
6 Hapoel Afula 6 3 1 2 10
7 Kiryat Yam SC 6 3 0 3 9
8 Maccabi Herzliya 6 2 2 2 8
9 Maccabi Kiryat Gat 6 2 2 2 8
10 Hapoel Kfar Shalem 6 2 2 2 8
11 Kafr Qasim 6 2 1 3 7
12 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 6 2 1 3 7
13 Hapoel Kfar Saba 6 2 0 4 6
14 Ironi Modi'in 6 1 2 3 5
15 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 6 1 0 5 3
16 Hapoel Acre 6 0 0 6 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kiryat Yam SC 6 18 12 +6 9
2 Hapoel Ra'anana 6 16 8 +8 12
3 Bnei Yehuda 6 15 5 +10 14
4 Ashdod 6 14 5 +9 15
5 Hapoel Rishon LeZion 6 12 7 +5 13
6 Hapoel Kfar Shalem 6 12 15 -3 8
7 Maccabi Bnei Raina 6 11 9 +2 12
8 Hapoel Afula 6 11 10 +1 10
9 Kafr Qasim 6 9 7 +2 7
10 Ironi Modi'in 6 9 11 -2 5
11 Hapoel Kfar Saba 6 8 16 -8 6
12 Maccabi Herzliya 6 7 7 0 8
13 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 6 7 9 -2 7
14 Maccabi Kiryat Gat 6 6 6 0 8
15 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 6 5 14 -9 3
16 Hapoel Acre 6 0 19 -19 0
Liga Leumit Israel. Liga Leumit Predictions