Predictions / Football / Israel. Liga Leumit / Maccabi Ahi Nazareth vs Hapoel Afula

Prediction Audit: Maccabi Ahi Nazareth vs Hapoel Afula Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
Aug 24, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.37
1 1.23
xG Accuracy: 64%
Hapoel Afula Hapoel Afula

The model missed the final outcome (Hapoel Afula win 0–1).

The model had projected Maccabi Ahi Nazareth at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth Hapoel Afula ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The closing market prices Hapoel Afula higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Hapoel Afula -5.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 38.5% 35.8% +2.7 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 27.3% +2.3 pp Aligned
Hapoel Afula 31.9% 36.9% -5.0 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Hapoel Afula's win probability at 36.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 5.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Hapoel Afula win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Hapoel Afula. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Maccabi Ahi Nazareth; match finished Hapoel Afula

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Maccabi Ahi Nazareth by 5.0 percentage points (43.5% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 24, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Hapoel Afula 31.9%
    • xG · Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 1.37 — Hapoel Afula 1.23
  2. Aug 24, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 2.56 · Draw 3.36 · Hapoel Afula 2.48
    • Implied 1X2 · Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 35.8% · Draw 27.3% · Hapoel Afula 36.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 24, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 2.56 · Draw 3.36 · Hapoel Afula 2.48
    • Implied 1X2 · Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 35.8% · Draw 27.3% · Hapoel Afula 36.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 24, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Hapoel Afula win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 26/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 18, 2026 · 02:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4455774

Closing Odds 2.48
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Hapoel Afula win · Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 0–1 Hapoel Afula
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga Leumit
  • Fixture: Maccabi Ahi Nazareth vs Hapoel Afula
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-24 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 1.37 — Hapoel Afula 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Leumit Liga Leumit — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ashdod 7 6 0 1 18
2 Bnei Yehuda 7 5 2 0 17
3 Hapoel Rishon LeZion 7 5 1 1 16
4 Hapoel Ra'anana 7 5 0 2 15
5 Hapoel Afula 7 4 1 2 13
6 Kiryat Yam SC 7 4 0 3 12
7 Maccabi Bnei Raina 7 4 0 3 12
8 Hapoel Kfar Shalem 7 3 2 2 11
9 Kafr Qasim 7 3 1 3 10
10 Maccabi Kiryat Gat 7 2 2 3 8
11 Maccabi Herzliya 7 2 2 3 8
12 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 7 2 1 4 7
13 Hapoel Kfar Saba 7 2 0 5 6
14 Ironi Modi'in 7 1 2 4 5
15 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 7 1 0 6 3
16 Hapoel Acre 7 0 0 7 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kiryat Yam SC 7 21 13 +8 12
2 Hapoel Ra'anana 7 18 9 +9 15
3 Ashdod 7 17 6 +11 18
4 Bnei Yehuda 7 17 6 +11 17
5 Hapoel Kfar Shalem 7 15 16 -1 11
6 Hapoel Afula 7 14 10 +4 13
7 Hapoel Rishon LeZion 7 13 7 +6 16
8 Maccabi Bnei Raina 7 12 11 +1 12
9 Kafr Qasim 7 10 7 +3 10
10 Ironi Modi'in 7 10 14 -4 5
11 Hapoel Kfar Saba 7 9 18 -9 6
12 Maccabi Herzliya 7 8 10 -2 8
13 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 7 7 10 -3 7
14 Maccabi Kiryat Gat 7 6 7 -1 8
15 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 7 6 17 -11 3
16 Hapoel Acre 7 0 22 -22 0