Predictions / Football / Israel. Liga Leumit / Maccabi Herzliya vs Hapoel Ra'anana

Prediction Audit: Maccabi Herzliya vs Hapoel Ra'anana Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Maccabi Herzliya Maccabi Herzliya
Aug 23, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.31
3 1.29
xG Accuracy: 52%
Hapoel Ra'anana Hapoel Ra'anana

The model missed the final outcome (Hapoel Ra'anana win 2–3).

The model had projected Maccabi Herzliya at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Maccabi Herzliya Hapoel Ra'anana ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Maccabi Herzliya higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Maccabi Herzliya -10.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Maccabi Herzliya 35.6% 46.4% -10.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 28.1% +1.5 pp Aligned
Hapoel Ra'anana 34.7% 25.4% +9.3 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Maccabi Herzliya's win probability at 46.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 10.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Hapoel Ra'anana win 2–3.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Maccabi Herzliya than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Maccabi Herzliya; match finished Hapoel Ra'anana

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Maccabi Herzliya by 10.8 percentage points (46.4% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 23, 2026 · 15:57 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Maccabi Herzliya 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Hapoel Ra'anana 34.7%
    • xG · Maccabi Herzliya 1.31 — Hapoel Ra'anana 1.29
  2. Aug 23, 2026 · 15:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Maccabi Herzliya 1.97 · Draw 3.25 · Hapoel Ra'anana 3.60
    • Implied 1X2 · Maccabi Herzliya 46.4% · Draw 28.1% · Hapoel Ra'anana 25.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 23, 2026 · 15:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Maccabi Herzliya 1.97 · Draw 3.25 · Hapoel Ra'anana 3.60
    • Implied 1X2 · Maccabi Herzliya 46.4% · Draw 28.1% · Hapoel Ra'anana 25.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 23, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Hapoel Ra'anana win · 2–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 46/100
Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 01:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4367978

Closing Odds 1.97
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Hapoel Ra'anana win · Maccabi Herzliya 2–3 Hapoel Ra'anana
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga Leumit
  • Fixture: Maccabi Herzliya vs Hapoel Ra'anana
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-23 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Maccabi Herzliya 1.31 — Hapoel Ra'anana 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.1%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Leumit Liga Leumit — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ashdod 7 6 0 1 18
2 Bnei Yehuda 7 5 2 0 17
3 Hapoel Rishon LeZion 7 5 1 1 16
4 Hapoel Ra'anana 7 5 0 2 15
5 Hapoel Afula 7 4 1 2 13
6 Kiryat Yam SC 7 4 0 3 12
7 Maccabi Bnei Raina 7 4 0 3 12
8 Hapoel Kfar Shalem 7 3 2 2 11
9 Kafr Qasim 7 3 1 3 10
10 Maccabi Kiryat Gat 7 2 2 3 8
11 Maccabi Herzliya 7 2 2 3 8
12 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 7 2 1 4 7
13 Hapoel Kfar Saba 7 2 0 5 6
14 Ironi Modi'in 7 1 2 4 5
15 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 7 1 0 6 3
16 Hapoel Acre 7 0 0 7 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kiryat Yam SC 7 21 13 +8 12
2 Hapoel Ra'anana 7 18 9 +9 15
3 Ashdod 7 17 6 +11 18
4 Bnei Yehuda 7 17 6 +11 17
5 Hapoel Kfar Shalem 7 15 16 -1 11
6 Hapoel Afula 7 14 10 +4 13
7 Hapoel Rishon LeZion 7 13 7 +6 16
8 Maccabi Bnei Raina 7 12 11 +1 12
9 Kafr Qasim 7 10 7 +3 10
10 Ironi Modi'in 7 10 14 -4 5
11 Hapoel Kfar Saba 7 9 18 -9 6
12 Maccabi Herzliya 7 8 10 -2 8
13 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 7 7 10 -3 7
14 Maccabi Kiryat Gat 7 6 7 -1 8
15 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 7 6 17 -11 3
16 Hapoel Acre 7 0 22 -22 0