Prediction Audit: Bnei Yehuda vs Hapoel Kfar Shalem Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bnei Yehuda

Aug 23, 2026 - 16:00

3 1.37

1 1.23

xG Accuracy: 60%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem

AI correctly predicted the Bnei Yehuda win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Bnei Yehuda Bnei Yehuda ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Bnei Yehuda	38.5%	54.9%	-16.4 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	24.2%	+5.3 pp	Model Higher
Hapoel Kfar Shalem	31.9%	20.9%	+11.1 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Bnei Yehuda's win probability at 54.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 16.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Bnei Yehuda win 3–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Bnei Yehuda than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Bnei Yehuda higher (54.9% vs model 38.5%, 16.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Bnei Yehuda win 3–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 23, 2026 · 15:57 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Bnei Yehuda 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Hapoel Kfar Shalem 31.9%
- xG · Bnei Yehuda 1.37 — Hapoel Kfar Shalem 1.23
Aug 23, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Bnei Yehuda 1.67 · Draw 3.78 · Hapoel Kfar Shalem 4.39
- Implied 1X2 · Bnei Yehuda 54.9% · Draw 24.2% · Hapoel Kfar Shalem 20.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 23, 2026 · 15:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Bnei Yehuda 1.67 · Draw 3.78 · Hapoel Kfar Shalem 4.39
- Implied 1X2 · Bnei Yehuda 54.9% · Draw 24.2% · Hapoel Kfar Shalem 20.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 23, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Bnei Yehuda win · 3–1
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (16 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 18/100

Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 01:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4367880

Closing Odds 1.67

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Bnei Yehuda win · Bnei Yehuda 3–1 Hapoel Kfar Shalem

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Liga Leumit
Fixture: Bnei Yehuda vs Hapoel Kfar Shalem
Kickoff: 2026-08-23 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
xG (showing): Bnei Yehuda 1.37 — Hapoel Kfar Shalem 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Leumit — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Ashdod	7	6	0	1	18
2	Bnei Yehuda	7	5	2	0	17
3	Hapoel Rishon LeZion	7	5	1	1	16
4	Hapoel Ra'anana	7	5	0	2	15
5	Hapoel Afula	7	4	1	2	13
6	Kiryat Yam SC	7	4	0	3	12
7	Maccabi Bnei Raina	7	4	0	3	12
8	Hapoel Kfar Shalem	7	3	2	2	11
9	Kafr Qasim	7	3	1	3	10
10	Maccabi Kiryat Gat	7	2	2	3	8
11	Maccabi Herzliya	7	2	2	3	8
12	Maccabi Ahi Nazareth	7	2	1	4	7
13	Hapoel Kfar Saba	7	2	0	5	6
14	Ironi Modi'in	7	1	2	4	5
15	Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa	7	1	0	6	3
16	Hapoel Acre	7	0	0	7	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Kiryat Yam SC	7	21	13	+8	12
2	Hapoel Ra'anana	7	18	9	+9	15
3	Ashdod	7	17	6	+11	18
4	Bnei Yehuda	7	17	6	+11	17
5	Hapoel Kfar Shalem	7	15	16	-1	11
6	Hapoel Afula	7	14	10	+4	13
7	Hapoel Rishon LeZion	7	13	7	+6	16
8	Maccabi Bnei Raina	7	12	11	+1	12
9	Kafr Qasim	7	10	7	+3	10
10	Ironi Modi'in	7	10	14	-4	5
11	Hapoel Kfar Saba	7	9	18	-9	6
12	Maccabi Herzliya	7	8	10	-2	8
13	Maccabi Ahi Nazareth	7	7	10	-3	7
14	Maccabi Kiryat Gat	7	6	7	-1	8
15	Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa	7	6	17	-11	3
16	Hapoel Acre	7	0	22	-22	0