The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Étoile Carouge at 41.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Étoile Carouge Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Nyonnais | 28.8% | 24.0% | +4.8 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.3% | 21.5% | +7.8 pp | Model Higher |
| Étoile Carouge | 41.9% | 54.5% | -12.6 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Étoile Carouge's win probability at 54.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.9%, a difference of 12.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Étoile Carouge than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Étoile Carouge; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Étoile Carouge by 12.6 percentage points (54.5% vs model 41.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Stade Nyonnais 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · Étoile Carouge 41.9%
- xG · Stade Nyonnais 1.16 — Étoile Carouge 1.44
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 17:05 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Stade Nyonnais 3.95 · Draw 4.42 · Étoile Carouge 1.74
- Implied 1X2 · Stade Nyonnais 24.0% · Draw 21.5% · Étoile Carouge 54.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Stade Nyonnais 3.95 · Draw 4.42 · Étoile Carouge 1.74
- Implied 1X2 · Stade Nyonnais 24.0% · Draw 21.5% · Étoile Carouge 54.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Challenge League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | FC Winterthur | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 3 | Yverdon Sport | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | SC Kriens | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | FC Aarau | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Rapperswil | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | Étoile Carouge | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 9 | FC WIL 1900 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Winterthur | 9 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 18 |
| 2 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 9 | 17 | 3 | +14 | 21 |
| 3 | SC Kriens | 9 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 | Rapperswil | 9 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 10 |
| 5 | FC WIL 1900 | 9 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 9 |
| 6 | Yverdon Sport | 9 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 16 |
| 7 | FC Aarau | 9 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 9 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 12 |
| 9 | Étoile Carouge | 9 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | 9 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 2 |
