AI correctly predicted the FC Aarau win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 FC Aarau FC Aarau ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Aarau | 46.3% | 67.7% | -21.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.7% | 18.8% | +9.9 pp | Model Higher |
| Stade Nyonnais | 25.0% | 13.5% | +11.5 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates FC Aarau's win probability at 67.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 46.3%, a difference of 21.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (FC Aarau win 2–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- FC Aarau attacking xG significantly stronger (1.53 vs 1.07)
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced FC Aarau higher (67.7% vs model 46.3%, 21.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (FC Aarau win 2–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 07, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · FC Aarau 46.3% · Draw 28.7% · Stade Nyonnais 24.9%
- xG · FC Aarau 1.53 — Stade Nyonnais 1.07
-
Aug 07, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · FC Aarau 1.40 · Draw 5.04 · Stade Nyonnais 7.04
- Implied 1X2 · FC Aarau 67.7% · Draw 18.8% · Stade Nyonnais 13.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 07, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · FC Aarau 1.40 · Draw 5.04 · Stade Nyonnais 7.04
- Implied 1X2 · FC Aarau 67.7% · Draw 18.8% · Stade Nyonnais 13.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 07, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result FC Aarau win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (21 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Challenge League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | FC Winterthur | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 3 | Yverdon Sport | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | SC Kriens | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | FC Aarau | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Rapperswil | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | Étoile Carouge | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 9 | FC WIL 1900 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Winterthur | 9 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 18 |
| 2 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 9 | 17 | 3 | +14 | 21 |
| 3 | SC Kriens | 9 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 | Rapperswil | 9 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 10 |
| 5 | FC WIL 1900 | 9 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 9 |
| 6 | Yverdon Sport | 9 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 16 |
| 7 | FC Aarau | 9 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 9 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 12 |
| 9 | Étoile Carouge | 9 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | 9 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 2 |
