The model missed the final outcome (FC WIL 1900 win 4–5).
The model had projected Rapperswil at 36.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (9 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Rapperswil FC WIL 1900 ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-5 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rapperswil | 36.2% | 32.9% | +3.3 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 28.5% | 25.9% | +2.7 pp | Aligned |
| FC WIL 1900 | 35.2% | 41.2% | -6.0 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates FC WIL 1900's win probability at 41.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 6.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was FC WIL 1900 win 4–5.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on FC WIL 1900. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 9 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (9 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Rapperswil; match finished FC WIL 1900
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Rapperswil by 6.0 percentage points (42.2% vs model 36.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 24, 2026 · 20:11 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Rapperswil 36.2% · Draw 28.6% · FC WIL 1900 35.2%
- xG · Rapperswil 1.35 — FC WIL 1900 1.25
-
Jul 24, 2026 · 17:03 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Rapperswil 2.89 · Draw 3.68 · FC WIL 1900 2.31
- Implied 1X2 · Rapperswil 32.9% · Draw 25.9% · FC WIL 1900 41.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 24, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Rapperswil 2.89 · Draw 3.68 · FC WIL 1900 2.31
- Implied 1X2 · Rapperswil 32.9% · Draw 25.9% · FC WIL 1900 41.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 24, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result FC WIL 1900 win · 4–5
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Challenge League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | FC Winterthur | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 3 | Yverdon Sport | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | SC Kriens | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | FC Aarau | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Rapperswil | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | Étoile Carouge | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 9 | FC WIL 1900 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Winterthur | 9 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 18 |
| 2 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 9 | 17 | 3 | +14 | 21 |
| 3 | SC Kriens | 9 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 | Rapperswil | 9 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 10 |
| 5 | FC WIL 1900 | 9 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 9 |
| 6 | Yverdon Sport | 9 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 16 |
| 7 | FC Aarau | 9 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 9 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 12 |
| 9 | Étoile Carouge | 9 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | 9 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 2 |
