Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / WSG Wattens vs Hertha BSC

Prediction Audit: WSG Wattens vs Hertha BSC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

WSG Wattens WSG Wattens
Jul 17, 2026 - 16:30
3 1.14
2 1.46
xG Accuracy: 52%
Hertha BSC Hertha BSC

The model missed the final outcome (WSG Wattens win 3–2).

The model had projected Hertha BSC at 42.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Hertha BSC WSG Wattens ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Hertha BSC higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Hertha BSC -18.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
WSG Wattens 27.9% 19.9% +8.1 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.2% 18.4% +10.8 pp Model Edge
Hertha BSC 42.9% 61.7% -18.8 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Hertha BSC's win probability at 61.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.9%, a difference of 18.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was WSG Wattens win 3–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Hertha BSC than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Hertha BSC; match finished WSG Wattens

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Hertha BSC by 18.8 percentage points (61.7% vs model 42.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 17, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · WSG Wattens 27.9% · Draw 29.2% · Hertha BSC 42.9%
    • xG · WSG Wattens 1.14 — Hertha BSC 1.46
  2. Jul 17, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · WSG Wattens 4.47 · Draw 4.82 · Hertha BSC 1.44
    • Implied 1X2 · WSG Wattens 19.9% · Draw 18.4% · Hertha BSC 61.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 17, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · WSG Wattens 4.47 · Draw 4.82 · Hertha BSC 1.44
    • Implied 1X2 · WSG Wattens 19.9% · Draw 18.4% · Hertha BSC 61.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 17, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result WSG Wattens win · 3–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (19 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 5/100
Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 18:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1485527

Closing Odds 1.44
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result WSG Wattens win · WSG Wattens 3–2 Hertha BSC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Club Friendlies
  • Fixture: WSG Tirol vs Hertha BSC
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-17 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 27.9% · Draw 29.2% · Away 42.9%
  • xG (showing): WSG Tirol 1.14 — Hertha BSC 1.46 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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