Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Montpellier vs Le Puy Foot

Prediction Audit: Montpellier vs Le Puy Foot Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Montpellier Montpellier
Jul 17, 2026 - 15:00
5 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 30%
Le Puy Foot Le Puy Foot

AI correctly predicted the Montpellier win.

The match finished 5–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Montpellier Montpellier ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Montpellier higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Montpellier -11.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Montpellier 41.5% 52.9% -11.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.2% 26.1% +3.1 pp Aligned
Le Puy Foot 29.3% 21.0% +8.4 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Montpellier's win probability at 52.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.5%, a difference of 11.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Montpellier win 5–2).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Montpellier than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Montpellier higher (52.9% vs model 41.5%, 11.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Montpellier win 5–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 17, 2026 · 19:31 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Montpellier 41.5% · Draw 29.2% · Le Puy Foot 29.3%
    • xG · Montpellier 1.32 — Le Puy Foot 1.28
  2. Jul 17, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Montpellier 1.68 · Draw 3.41 · Le Puy Foot 4.24
    • Implied 1X2 · Montpellier 52.9% · Draw 26.1% · Le Puy Foot 21.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 17, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Montpellier 1.68 · Draw 3.41 · Le Puy Foot 4.24
    • Implied 1X2 · Montpellier 52.9% · Draw 26.1% · Le Puy Foot 21.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 17, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Montpellier win · 5–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 42/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 18:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1483227

Closing Odds 1.68
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Montpellier win · Montpellier 5–2 Le Puy Foot
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Club Friendlies
  • Fixture: Montpellier HSC vs Le Puy Foot
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-17 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Montpellier HSC 1.32 — Le Puy Foot 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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