Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Prostějov vs Floridsdorfer AC

Prediction Audit: Prostějov vs Floridsdorfer AC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Prostějov Prostějov
Jul 17, 2026 - 09:00
2 1.34
1 1.26
xG Accuracy: 78%
Floridsdorfer AC Floridsdorfer AC

The model missed the final outcome (Prostějov win 2–1).

The model had projected Floridsdorfer AC at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Floridsdorfer AC Prostějov ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Floridsdorfer AC higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Floridsdorfer AC -5.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Prostějov 35.3% 30.4% +4.8 pp Aligned
Draw 29.2% 28.2% +0.9 pp Aligned
Floridsdorfer AC 35.6% 41.3% -5.8 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Floridsdorfer AC's win probability at 41.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 5.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Prostějov win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Floridsdorfer AC. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Floridsdorfer AC; match finished Prostějov

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Floridsdorfer AC by 5.8 percentage points (41.4% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 17, 2026 · 19:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Prostějov 35.2% · Draw 29.2% · Floridsdorfer AC 35.6%
    • xG · Prostějov 1.34 — Floridsdorfer AC 1.26
  2. Jul 17, 2026 · 08:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Prostějov 2.92 · Draw 3.15 · Floridsdorfer AC 2.15
    • Implied 1X2 · Prostějov 30.4% · Draw 28.2% · Floridsdorfer AC 41.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 17, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Prostějov 2.92 · Draw 3.15 · Floridsdorfer AC 2.15
    • Implied 1X2 · Prostějov 30.4% · Draw 28.2% · Floridsdorfer AC 41.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 17, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Prostějov win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 71/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 18:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3067017

Closing Odds 2.15
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Prostějov win · Prostějov 2–1 Floridsdorfer AC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Club Friendlies
  • Fixture: Prostějov vs Floridsdorfer AC
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-17 09:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.0% · Draw 35.0% · Away 30.0%
  • xG (showing): Prostějov 1.34 — Floridsdorfer AC 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Friendlies Clubs Matches Track Prostějov Next Match Prediction Track Floridsdorfer AC Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Prostějov & Floridsdorfer AC!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Friendlies Clubs World. Friendlies Clubs Predictions