Prediction Audit: Derio vs Athletic Club Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Derio

Jul 15, 2026 - 17:30

0 1.34

3 1.26

xG Accuracy: 43%

Athletic Club

AI correctly predicted the Athletic Club win.

The match finished 0–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Athletic Club Athletic Club ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Derio	21.8%	4.6%	+17.2 pp	Model Edge
Draw	23.2%	6.6%	+16.7 pp	Model Edge
Athletic Club	54.9%	88.8%	-33.9 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Athletic Club's win probability at 88.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 54.9%, a difference of 33.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Athletic Club win 0–3).

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Athletic Club higher (88.8% vs model 54.9%, 33.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Athletic Club win 0–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Jul 15, 2026 · 19:33 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Derio 21.8% · Draw 23.3% · Athletic Club 55.0%
- xG · Derio 1.34 — Athletic Club 1.26
Jul 15, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Derio 19.69 · Draw 13.82 · Athletic Club 1.02
- Implied 1X2 · Derio 4.6% · Draw 6.6% · Athletic Club 88.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 15, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Derio 19.69 · Draw 13.82 · Athletic Club 1.02
- Implied 1X2 · Derio 4.6% · Draw 6.6% · Athletic Club 88.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 15, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Athletic Club win · 0–3
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 32/100 · Low

Validation: Fail
Large market gap (34 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market strongly disagrees on price
Validation failed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 04:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1551166

Closing Odds 1.02

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Athletic Club win · Derio 0–3 Athletic Club

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Athletic Club; market prices Athletic Club instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Derio 1.34 xG vs Athletic Club 1.26 → Athletic Club 54.9%
Market: Athletic Club ~88.8% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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