The model missed the final outcome (United of Manchester win 2–0).
The model had projected Rochdale at 43.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Rochdale United of Manchester ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United of Manchester | 28.7% | 19.2% | +9.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 28.1% | 23.5% | +4.5 pp | Aligned |
| Rochdale | 43.2% | 57.2% | -14.1 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Rochdale's win probability at 57.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 43.2%, a difference of 14.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was United of Manchester win 2–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Rochdale than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Rochdale; match finished United of Manchester
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Rochdale by 14.1 percentage points (57.3% vs model 43.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 14, 2026 · 20:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · United of Manchester 28.8% · Draw 28.1% · Rochdale 43.1%
- xG · United of Manchester 1.28 — Rochdale 1.32
-
Jul 14, 2026 · 18:16 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · United of Manchester 4.62 · Draw 3.77 · Rochdale 1.55
- Implied 1X2 · United of Manchester 19.2% · Draw 23.5% · Rochdale 57.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 14, 2026 · 18:46 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · United of Manchester 4.62 · Draw 3.77 · Rochdale 1.55
- Implied 1X2 · United of Manchester 19.2% · Draw 23.5% · Rochdale 57.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 14, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result United of Manchester win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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