AI correctly predicted the Kilmarnock win.
The match finished 2–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linfield | 34.7% | 24.2% | +10.5 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.0% | +4.7 pp | Aligned |
| Kilmarnock | 35.6% | 50.8% | -15.2 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Kilmarnock's win probability at 50.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 15.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Kilmarnock win 2–3).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Kilmarnock than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Kilmarnock higher (50.8% vs model 35.6%, 15.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Kilmarnock win 2–3).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 04, 2026 · 20:26 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Linfield 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Kilmarnock 35.6%
- xG · Linfield 1.29 — Kilmarnock 1.31
-
Jul 04, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Linfield 3.68 · Draw 3.56 · Kilmarnock 1.75
- Implied 1X2 · Linfield 24.2% · Draw 25.0% · Kilmarnock 50.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 04, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Linfield 3.68 · Draw 3.56 · Kilmarnock 1.75
- Implied 1X2 · Linfield 24.2% · Draw 25.0% · Kilmarnock 50.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 04, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Kilmarnock win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (15 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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