Predictions / Football / Japan. J3 League / Roasso Kumamoto vs Tochigi SC

Prediction Audit: Roasso Kumamoto vs Tochigi SC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Roasso Kumamoto Roasso Kumamoto
Aug 15, 2026 - 10:00
0 1.28
0 1.32
xG Accuracy: 49%
Tochigi SC Tochigi SC

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Tochigi SC at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Tochigi SC Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Tochigi SC; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Roasso Kumamoto 1.28 — Tochigi SC 1.32
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 01:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3339345

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Roasso Kumamoto 0–0 Tochigi SC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: J3 League
  • Fixture: Roasso Kumamoto vs Tochigi SC
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Roasso Kumamoto 1.28 — Tochigi SC 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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J3 League J3 League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ehime FC 10 7 2 1 23
2 Kagoshima United 10 7 2 1 23
3 Renofa Yamaguchi 10 6 2 2 20
4 Nara Club 10 6 2 2 20
5 Sagamihara 10 5 3 2 18
6 Osaka 10 4 5 1 17
7 FC Gifu 10 5 1 4 16
8 Kanazawa 10 4 2 4 14
9 Roasso Kumamoto 10 3 5 2 14
10 Biwako Shiga 10 4 2 4 14
11 Parceiro Nagano 10 4 2 4 14
12 Gainare Tottori 10 4 1 5 13
13 Matsumoto Yamaga 10 2 5 3 11
14 FC Ryukyu 10 3 2 5 11
15 Tochigi SC 10 2 4 4 10
16 Kitakyushu 10 2 4 4 10
17 Thespakusatsu Gunma 10 3 0 7 9
18 Fukushima United 10 2 2 6 8
19 Kamatamare Sanuki 10 1 2 7 5
20 Kochi United 10 1 2 7 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Ehime FC 10 24 10 +14 23
2 Nara Club 10 21 16 +5 20
3 FC Gifu 10 20 10 +10 16
4 Fukushima United 10 20 25 -5 8
5 Kagoshima United 10 19 11 +8 23
6 Osaka 10 18 9 +9 17
7 Sagamihara 10 18 12 +6 18
8 Kanazawa 10 17 14 +3 14
9 Biwako Shiga 10 16 16 0 14
10 Renofa Yamaguchi 10 14 7 +7 20
11 Parceiro Nagano 10 14 14 0 14
12 Kitakyushu 10 12 18 -6 10
13 Gainare Tottori 10 12 19 -7 13
14 Kamatamare Sanuki 10 12 20 -8 5
15 FC Ryukyu 10 11 14 -3 11
16 Tochigi SC 10 11 15 -4 10
17 Thespakusatsu Gunma 10 10 19 -9 9
18 Matsumoto Yamaga 10 9 11 -2 11
19 Roasso Kumamoto 10 7 6 +1 14
20 Kochi United 10 4 23 -19 5
J3 League Japan. J3 League Predictions