Prediction Audit: Sagamihara vs Roasso Kumamoto Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sagamihara

Aug 08, 2026 - 09:00

0 1.25

0 1.35

xG Accuracy: 49%

Roasso Kumamoto

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Roasso Kumamoto at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Roasso Kumamoto Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Sagamihara	32.9%	38.4%	-5.6 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	28.0%	+1.6 pp	Aligned
Roasso Kumamoto	37.5%	33.6%	+4.0 pp	Aligned

The closing market estimates Sagamihara's win probability at 38.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 5.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Sagamihara. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
1X2: model leaned Roasso Kumamoto; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Roasso Kumamoto by 5.6 percentage points (43.1% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 08, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sagamihara 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Roasso Kumamoto 37.6%
- xG · Sagamihara 1.25 — Roasso Kumamoto 1.35
Aug 08, 2026 · 08:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sagamihara 2.20 · Draw 3.02 · Roasso Kumamoto 2.52
- Implied 1X2 · Sagamihara 38.4% · Draw 28.0% · Roasso Kumamoto 33.6%
- Bookmaker · SBO
Aug 08, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sagamihara 2.20 · Draw 3.02 · Roasso Kumamoto 2.52
- Implied 1X2 · Sagamihara 38.4% · Draw 28.0% · Roasso Kumamoto 33.6%
- Bookmaker · SBO
Aug 08, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Market Compatibility 25/100

Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 01:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2809331

Closing Odds 2.2

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Sagamihara 0–0 Roasso Kumamoto

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: J3 League
Fixture: Sagamihara vs Roasso Kumamoto
Kickoff: 2026-08-08 09:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
xG (showing): Sagamihara 1.25 — Roasso Kumamoto 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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J3 League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Kagoshima United	8	6	2	0	20
2	Ehime FC	8	5	2	1	17
3	Osaka	8	4	4	0	16
4	Renofa Yamaguchi	8	4	2	2	14
5	Nara Club	8	4	2	2	14
6	FC Gifu	8	4	1	3	13
7	Roasso Kumamoto	8	3	4	1	13
8	Sagamihara	8	3	3	2	12
9	Biwako Shiga	8	4	0	4	12
10	FC Ryukyu	8	3	2	3	11
11	Parceiro Nagano	8	3	2	3	11
12	Kanazawa	8	3	1	4	10
13	Gainare Tottori	8	3	1	4	10
14	Tochigi SC	8	2	3	3	9
15	Matsumoto Yamaga	8	1	5	2	8
16	Fukushima United	8	2	1	5	7
17	Kitakyushu	8	1	4	3	7
18	Thespakusatsu Gunma	8	2	0	6	6
19	Kochi United	8	1	2	5	5
20	Kamatamare Sanuki	8	1	1	6	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	FC Gifu	8	19	8	+11	13
2	Ehime FC	8	19	9	+10	17
3	Nara Club	8	18	16	+2	14
4	Osaka	8	17	7	+10	16
5	Kagoshima United	8	16	8	+8	20
6	Fukushima United	8	16	20	-4	7
7	Sagamihara	8	14	10	+4	12
8	Kanazawa	8	14	13	+1	10
9	Biwako Shiga	8	14	14	0	12
10	Renofa Yamaguchi	8	11	7	+4	14
11	Parceiro Nagano	8	11	12	-1	11
12	Tochigi SC	8	11	14	-3	9
13	Gainare Tottori	8	11	18	-7	10
14	FC Ryukyu	8	10	10	0	11
15	Kitakyushu	8	10	16	-6	7
16	Kamatamare Sanuki	8	10	17	-7	4
17	Matsumoto Yamaga	8	8	10	-2	8
18	Roasso Kumamoto	8	7	4	+3	13
19	Thespakusatsu Gunma	8	7	15	-8	6
20	Kochi United	8	3	18	-15	5