The model missed the final outcome (Napredak win 0–1).
The model had projected OFK Bor 1919 at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 OFK Bor 1919 Napredak ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OFK Bor 1919 | 36.1% | 27.8% | +8.3 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.9% | +3.8 pp | Aligned |
| Napredak | 34.2% | 46.3% | -12.1 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Napredak's win probability at 46.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 12.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the result was Napredak win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Napredak than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned OFK Bor 1919; match finished Napredak
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on OFK Bor 1919 by 12.1 percentage points (48.2% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 08, 2026 · 17:56 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · OFK Bor 1919 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Napredak 34.2%
- xG · OFK Bor 1919 1.32 — Napredak 1.28
-
Aug 08, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · OFK Bor 1919 3.20 · Draw 3.44 · Napredak 1.92
- Implied 1X2 · OFK Bor 1919 27.8% · Draw 25.9% · Napredak 46.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 08, 2026 · 17:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · OFK Bor 1919 3.20 · Draw 3.44 · Napredak 1.92
- Implied 1X2 · OFK Bor 1919 27.8% · Draw 25.9% · Napredak 46.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 08, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Napredak win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Prva Liga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borac Cacak | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 25 |
| 2 | TSC Backa Topola | 11 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 21 |
| 3 | Semendrija 1924 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| 4 | OFK Vršac | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 21 |
| 5 | Javor | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 19 |
| 6 | FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Metalac GM | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 8 | FK Vozdovac | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 9 | Dubočica | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 10 | Napredak | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 11 | Loznica | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 12 |
| 12 | OFK Bor 1919 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 13 | Naftagas | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| 14 | Jedinstvo Ub | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 15 | Grafičar | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 16 | Teleoptik | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Javor | 10 | 25 | 12 | +13 | 19 |
| 2 | TSC Backa Topola | 11 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 21 |
| 3 | Borac Cacak | 11 | 20 | 13 | +7 | 25 |
| 4 | Semendrija 1924 | 11 | 20 | 13 | +7 | 21 |
| 5 | FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV | 10 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 15 |
| 6 | OFK Vršac | 11 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 21 |
| 7 | Metalac GM | 10 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 14 |
| 8 | Loznica | 10 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 |
| 9 | Dubočica | 10 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 14 |
| 10 | FK Vozdovac | 10 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 14 |
| 11 | Jedinstvo Ub | 10 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
| 12 | Grafičar | 10 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
| 13 | Teleoptik | 10 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | Napredak | 10 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 13 |
| 15 | Naftagas | 10 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | OFK Bor 1919 | 10 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 8 |
