Predictions / Football / Serbia. Prva Liga / Semendrija 1924 vs OFK Vršac

Prediction Audit: Semendrija 1924 vs OFK Vršac Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Semendrija 1924 Semendrija 1924
Sep 26, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.27
0 1.33
xG Accuracy: 64%
OFK Vršac OFK Vršac

The model missed the final outcome (Semendrija 1924 win 1–0).

The model had projected OFK Vršac at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 OFK Vršac Semendrija 1924 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Semendrija 1924 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Semendrija 1924 -14.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Semendrija 1924 33.8% 48.6% -14.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 28.1% +1.6 pp Aligned
OFK Vršac 36.6% 23.3% +13.2 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Semendrija 1924's win probability at 48.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 14.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Semendrija 1924 win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Semendrija 1924 than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on OFK Vršac by 14.8 percentage points (51.4% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 11:57 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Semendrija 1924 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · OFK Vršac 36.6%
    • xG · Semendrija 1924 1.27 — OFK Vršac 1.33
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 11:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Semendrija 1924 1.83 · Draw 3.17 · OFK Vršac 3.81
    • Implied 1X2 · Semendrija 1924 48.6% · Draw 28.1% · OFK Vršac 23.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 11:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Semendrija 1924 1.83 · Draw 3.17 · OFK Vršac 3.81
    • Implied 1X2 · Semendrija 1924 48.6% · Draw 28.1% · OFK Vršac 23.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Semendrija 1924 win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 8/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10082794

Closing Odds 1.83
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Semendrija 1924 win · Semendrija 1924 1–0 OFK Vršac
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Prva Liga
  • Fixture: Semendrija 1924 vs OFK Vršac
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Semendrija 1924 1.27 — OFK Vršac 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 47.7% · Probability edge: +6.8 pts · Est. EV: +6.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Prva Liga Prva Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Borac Cacak 11 8 1 2 25
2 TSC Backa Topola 11 5 6 0 21
3 Semendrija 1924 11 6 3 2 21
4 OFK Vršac 11 7 0 4 21
5 Javor 10 5 4 1 19
6 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 10 4 3 3 15
7 Metalac GM 10 4 2 4 14
8 FK Vozdovac 10 4 2 4 14
9 Dubočica 10 4 2 4 14
10 Napredak 10 4 1 5 13
11 Loznica 10 2 6 2 12
12 OFK Bor 1919 10 2 2 6 8
13 Naftagas 10 1 4 5 7
14 Jedinstvo Ub 10 2 1 7 7
15 Grafičar 10 2 1 7 7
16 Teleoptik 10 1 4 5 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Javor 10 25 12 +13 19
2 TSC Backa Topola 11 20 12 +8 21
3 Borac Cacak 11 20 13 +7 25
4 Semendrija 1924 11 20 13 +7 21
5 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 10 18 15 +3 15
6 OFK Vršac 11 16 11 +5 21
7 Metalac GM 10 14 12 +2 14
8 Loznica 10 14 16 -2 12
9 Dubočica 10 12 14 -2 14
10 FK Vozdovac 10 11 10 +1 14
11 Jedinstvo Ub 10 11 18 -7 7
12 Grafičar 10 11 18 -7 7
13 Teleoptik 10 11 19 -8 7
14 Napredak 10 10 15 -5 13
15 Naftagas 10 10 15 -5 7
16 OFK Bor 1919 10 7 17 -10 8
Prva Liga Serbia. Prva Liga Predictions