Predictions / Football / Serbia. Prva Liga / FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV vs OFK Vršac

Prediction Audit: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV vs OFK Vršac Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
Sep 05, 2026 - 18:00
2 1.25
0 1.35
xG Accuracy: 56%
OFK Vršac OFK Vršac

AI correctly predicted the FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV -11.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 37.9% 49.6% -11.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.4% 27.6% +1.8 pp Aligned
OFK Vršac 32.7% 22.8% +9.9 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV's win probability at 49.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.9%, a difference of 11.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV higher (49.6% vs model 37.9%, 11.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 05, 2026 · 19:53 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 37.9% · Draw 29.4% · OFK Vršac 32.7%
    • xG · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1.25 — OFK Vršac 1.35
  2. Sep 05, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1.79 · Draw 3.21 · OFK Vršac 3.90
    • Implied 1X2 · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 49.6% · Draw 27.6% · OFK Vršac 22.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 05, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1.79 · Draw 3.21 · OFK Vršac 3.90
    • Implied 1X2 · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 49.6% · Draw 27.6% · OFK Vršac 22.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 05, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 41/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 03:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6160778

Closing Odds 1.79
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 2–0 OFK Vršac
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Prva Liga
  • Fixture: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV vs OFK Vršac
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.9% · Draw 29.4% · Away 32.7%
  • xG (showing): FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1.25 — OFK Vršac 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Predictions
Prva Liga Prva Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Borac Cacak 11 8 1 2 25
2 TSC Backa Topola 11 5 6 0 21
3 Semendrija 1924 11 6 3 2 21
4 OFK Vršac 11 7 0 4 21
5 Javor 10 5 4 1 19
6 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 10 4 3 3 15
7 Metalac GM 10 4 2 4 14
8 FK Vozdovac 10 4 2 4 14
9 Dubočica 10 4 2 4 14
10 Napredak 10 4 1 5 13
11 Loznica 10 2 6 2 12
12 OFK Bor 1919 10 2 2 6 8
13 Naftagas 10 1 4 5 7
14 Jedinstvo Ub 10 2 1 7 7
15 Grafičar 10 2 1 7 7
16 Teleoptik 10 1 4 5 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Javor 10 25 12 +13 19
2 TSC Backa Topola 11 20 12 +8 21
3 Borac Cacak 11 20 13 +7 25
4 Semendrija 1924 11 20 13 +7 21
5 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 10 18 15 +3 15
6 OFK Vršac 11 16 11 +5 21
7 Metalac GM 10 14 12 +2 14
8 Loznica 10 14 16 -2 12
9 Dubočica 10 12 14 -2 14
10 FK Vozdovac 10 11 10 +1 14
11 Jedinstvo Ub 10 11 18 -7 7
12 Grafičar 10 11 18 -7 7
13 Teleoptik 10 11 19 -8 7
14 Napredak 10 10 15 -5 13
15 Naftagas 10 10 15 -5 7
16 OFK Bor 1919 10 7 17 -10 8
Prva Liga Serbia. Prva Liga Predictions