Predictions / Football / Serbia. Prva Liga / FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV vs Teleoptik

Prediction Audit: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV vs Teleoptik Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
Aug 14, 2026 - 18:00
2 1.32
4 1.28
xG Accuracy: 39%
Teleoptik Teleoptik

The model missed the final outcome (Teleoptik win 2–4).

The model had projected FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV Teleoptik ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV -36.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 36.1% 72.3% -36.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 18.0% +11.6 pp Model Edge
Teleoptik 34.2% 9.7% +24.5 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV's win probability at 72.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 36.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Teleoptik win 2–4.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV; match finished Teleoptik

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV by 36.1 percentage points (72.2% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 14, 2026 · 18:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Teleoptik 34.2%
    • xG · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1.32 — Teleoptik 1.28
  2. Aug 14, 2026 · 17:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1.23 · Draw 4.93 · Teleoptik 9.15
    • Implied 1X2 · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 72.3% · Draw 18.0% · Teleoptik 9.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 14, 2026 · 18:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1.23 · Draw 4.93 · Teleoptik 9.15
    • Implied 1X2 · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 72.3% · Draw 18.0% · Teleoptik 9.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 14, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Teleoptik win · 2–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 31/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (36 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 00:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3335360

Closing Odds 1.23
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Teleoptik win · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 2–4 Teleoptik
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV; market prices FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1.32 xG vs Teleoptik 1.28 → FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 36.1%
  • Market: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV ~72.3% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Prva Liga Prva Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Borac Cacak 11 8 1 2 25
2 TSC Backa Topola 11 5 6 0 21
3 Semendrija 1924 11 6 3 2 21
4 OFK Vršac 11 7 0 4 21
5 Javor 10 5 4 1 19
6 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 10 4 3 3 15
7 Metalac GM 10 4 2 4 14
8 FK Vozdovac 10 4 2 4 14
9 Dubočica 10 4 2 4 14
10 Napredak 10 4 1 5 13
11 Loznica 10 2 6 2 12
12 OFK Bor 1919 10 2 2 6 8
13 Naftagas 10 1 4 5 7
14 Jedinstvo Ub 10 2 1 7 7
15 Grafičar 10 2 1 7 7
16 Teleoptik 10 1 4 5 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Javor 10 25 12 +13 19
2 TSC Backa Topola 11 20 12 +8 21
3 Borac Cacak 11 20 13 +7 25
4 Semendrija 1924 11 20 13 +7 21
5 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 10 18 15 +3 15
6 OFK Vršac 11 16 11 +5 21
7 Metalac GM 10 14 12 +2 14
8 Loznica 10 14 16 -2 12
9 Dubočica 10 12 14 -2 14
10 FK Vozdovac 10 11 10 +1 14
11 Jedinstvo Ub 10 11 18 -7 7
12 Grafičar 10 11 18 -7 7
13 Teleoptik 10 11 19 -8 7
14 Napredak 10 10 15 -5 13
15 Naftagas 10 10 15 -5 7
16 OFK Bor 1919 10 7 17 -10 8
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