Prediction Audit: Trans Narva vs Flora II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Trans Narva

Jul 22, 2026 - 16:00

0(4) 1.42

0(3) 1.18

xG Accuracy: 49%

Flora II

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Trans Narva at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Trans Narva Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Trans Narva	40.9%	78.7%	-37.8 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.4%	12.3%	+17.1 pp	Model Edge
Flora II	29.7%	9.0%	+20.7 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Trans Narva's win probability at 78.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 37.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
1X2: model leaned Trans Narva; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Trans Narva by 37.8 percentage points (78.7% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Jul 22, 2026 · 19:33 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Trans Narva 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Flora II 29.6%
- xG · Trans Narva 1.42 — Flora II 1.18
Jul 22, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Trans Narva 1.10 · Draw 7.04 · Flora II 9.63
- Implied 1X2 · Trans Narva 78.7% · Draw 12.3% · Flora II 9.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 22, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Trans Narva 1.10 · Draw 7.04 · Flora II 9.63
- Implied 1X2 · Trans Narva 78.7% · Draw 12.3% · Flora II 9.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 22, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 30/100 · Low

Validation: Fail
Large market gap (38 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market strongly disagrees on price
Validation failed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Monitoring Confidence 8/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2523272

Closing Odds 1.1

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Trans Narva 0–0 Flora II

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Trans Narva; market prices Trans Narva instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Trans Narva 1.42 xG vs Flora II 1.18 → Trans Narva 40.9%
Market: Trans Narva ~78.7% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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