Predictions / Football / Brazil. Serie D / Uberlandia vs Rio Branco ES

Prediction Audit: Uberlandia vs Rio Branco ES Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Uberlandia Uberlandia
Jun 27, 2026 - 20:00
2 1.18
2 1.42
xG Accuracy: 68%
Rio Branco ES Rio Branco ES

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Rio Branco ES at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Rio Branco ES Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Rio Branco ES considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Rio Branco ES +17.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Uberlandia 29.7% 47.2% -17.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.4% 29.7% -0.3 pp Aligned
Rio Branco ES 40.9% 23.2% +17.8 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Rio Branco ES's win probability at 40.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.2%, a difference of 17.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Rio Branco ES.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Rio Branco ES; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Rio Branco ES by 17.8 percentage points (23.1% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 27, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Uberlandia 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Rio Branco ES 41.0%
    • xG · Uberlandia 1.18 — Rio Branco ES 1.42
  2. Jun 27, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Uberlandia 1.92 · Draw 3.05 · Rio Branco ES 3.91
    • Implied 1X2 · Uberlandia 47.2% · Draw 29.7% · Rio Branco ES 23.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 27, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Uberlandia 1.92 · Draw 3.05 · Rio Branco ES 3.91
    • Implied 1X2 · Uberlandia 47.2% · Draw 29.7% · Rio Branco ES 23.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 27, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (18 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 3/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 19:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1631297

Closing Odds 3.91
AI Fair Odds 2.44
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Uberlandia 2–2 Rio Branco ES
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 41.0%
  • Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=2)

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Serie D
  • Fixture: Uberlandia vs Rio Branco ES
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-27 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.0%
  • xG (showing): Uberlandia 1.18 — Rio Branco ES 1.42 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Rio Branco ES
  • Model: 41.0% · Implied: 23.2% · Probability edge: +17.8 pts · Est. EV: +5.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie D Serie D — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Manauara 10 6 4 0 22
2 Nacional AM 10 6 2 2 20
3 Sao Raimundo 10 3 4 3 13
4 Monte Roraima 10 2 4 4 10
5 Manaus FC 10 2 4 4 10
6 GAS 10 1 2 7 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Nacional AM 10 15 9 +6 20
2 Manauara 10 13 5 +8 22
3 Monte Roraima 10 11 14 -3 10
4 Sao Raimundo 10 10 7 +3 13
5 Manaus FC 10 8 13 -5 10
6 GAS 10 8 17 -9 5