Predictions / Football / Brazil. Serie D / Sergipe vs ASA

Prediction Audit: Sergipe vs ASA Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sergipe Sergipe
Jun 27, 2026 - 20:00
0 1.27
1 1.33
xG Accuracy: 64%
ASA ASA

AI correctly predicted the ASA win.

The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 ASA ASA ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates ASA considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: ASA +11.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sergipe 33.8% 41.7% -8.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 32.9% -3.3 pp Aligned
ASA 36.6% 25.4% +11.2 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates ASA's win probability at 36.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.4%, a difference of 11.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (ASA win 0–1).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on ASA.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced ASA more conservatively (25.4% vs model 36.6%, 11.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (ASA win 0–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 27, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sergipe 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · ASA 36.6%
    • xG · Sergipe 1.27 — ASA 1.33
  2. Jun 27, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sergipe 2.17 · Draw 2.75 · ASA 3.57
    • Implied 1X2 · Sergipe 41.7% · Draw 32.9% · ASA 25.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 27, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sergipe 2.17 · Draw 2.75 · ASA 3.57
    • Implied 1X2 · Sergipe 41.7% · Draw 32.9% · ASA 25.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 27, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result ASA win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 15/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 20:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3210935

Closing Odds 3.57
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result ASA win · Sergipe 0–1 ASA
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie D
  • Fixture: Sergipe vs ASA
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-27 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Sergipe 1.27 — ASA 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.5%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie D Serie D — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Manauara 10 6 4 0 22
2 Nacional AM 10 6 2 2 20
3 Sao Raimundo 10 3 4 3 13
4 Monte Roraima 10 2 4 4 10
5 Manaus FC 10 2 4 4 10
6 GAS 10 1 2 7 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Nacional AM 10 15 9 +6 20
2 Manauara 10 13 5 +8 22
3 Monte Roraima 10 11 14 -3 10
4 Sao Raimundo 10 10 7 +3 13
5 Manaus FC 10 8 13 -5 10
6 GAS 10 8 17 -9 5